March 2, 2012: Remembering The Tri-State’s Deadliest Tornado Outbreak

Where were you 10 years ago today? Unfortunately, for some, it was their last. March 2, 2012 was the single deadliest severe weather day in the Tri-State since official records began in 1950. There were 10 tornadoes in the Tri-State that day, and 11 people died in northern Kentucky, southeastern Indiana, and southwestern Ohio as a result of the tornadoes that day.

This day was also the biggest day of my weather career. This event was not a surprise; I was on television Monday morning talking about this severe weather outbreak that would occur on a Friday. By Tuesday, I was concerned that there would be severe weather to the west of the Tri-State. By Wednesday and Thursday, guidance was shifting and expanding that threat east into southern Indiana, and central Kentucky. By late Friday morning, it was very apparent that morning thunderstorms were going to move north and the warm front was going to be able to spread into northern Kentucky and areas along and south of US-50 in Ohio and Indiana. Here’s the evolution of the severe weather threat from the Storm Prediction Center in the days leading up to the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak:

Tim Hedrick and I chatted throughout the week about the event, but I remember the conversation we had on the evening of March 1, 2012 well. That night, he asked me what I thought. I said that the severe weather threat was concerning, especially to the west of us…but I was concerned about what the leftovers would look like if thunderstorms in the morning could get out by the afternoon. By 10am Friday morning, he called and asked me to come in. By noon, I was in the chair looking at data. By 2pm, we were watching explosive thunderstorm development in Illinois and Indiana on radar; cells went from non-existent to tornadic. This outbreak’s first signal of extreme severity happened at 3:14pm ET; at this time, Henryville, Indiana is struck by an EF-4 tornado. This tornado was on the ground for 49 continuous miles and killed 11 people. The thunderstorm that produced this tornado would produce additional tornado damage in northern Kentucky and southwestern Ohio later that afternoon.

NWS Louisville reflectivity/velocity radar imagery at 3:14pm ET 3/2/2012. A debris ball is shown in the reflectivity imagery at the left near Henryville, Indiana.

At 3:22pm, the National Weather Service in Wilmington issued their first Tornado Warning of the day for Carrollton, Kentucky and surrounding areas. At 3:44pm, that warning became the first ever Tornado Emergency issued the NWS Wilmington forecast office.

Meanwhile, a supercell in Jennings County, Indiana was rapidly rotating as it entered Ripley County. At 3:51pm, a developing EF-3 tornado took aim on Holton, Indiana. Tri-State residents Ron Pickett, Armando Hernandez, and Ted Tolbert were killed by this tornado.

FAA Terminal Doppler reflectivity/velocity radar imagery at 3:51pm ET 3/2/2012. Strong rotation is shown in the velocity imagery at the right near Holton, Indiana.

Back in northern Kentucky around the same time (3:50pm), a second Tornado Emergency is issued for areas near the I-71/75 split. I remember announcing on television that rotation in the supercell was increasing and preparing to cross I-75. A tornado was forming and moving east at roughly 50mph. At 4:27pm, debris from the EF-4 Piner/Crittenden tornado is detected by the FAA Doppler radar in south-central Kenton County. This tornado was the first tornado to be considered a violent tornado since the Blue Ash/Montgomery/Symmes Township tornado on April 9, 1999. Tri-State residents Don Beemon, Linda Beemon, James Brooks, and Courtney Stephenson were killed by this tornado.

FAA Terminal Doppler reflectivity/velocity radar imagery at 4:27pm ET 3/2/2012. Strong rotation is shown in the velocity imagery at the right near Piner, Kentucky. A debris ball is shown in the reflectivity imagery at the left near the same location.

This supercell is not done. Radar showed tornado debris in southern Campbell County. This EF-3 tornado that formed in southern Campbell County would be on the ground for 23 miles into Clermont and Brown County, causing extensive damage in Moscow and Hamersville. Tri-State residents Carol Forste, James Prater, and Bill Adkins were killed by this tornado. The National Weather Service storm survey of this area also revealed a large area of 100+ mph straight-line winds near Peach Grove.

FAA Terminal Doppler reflectivity/velocity radar imagery at 4:42pm ET 3/2/2012. Strong rotation is shown in the velocity imagery at the right nearing Moscow, Ohio. A debris ball is shown in the reflectivity imagery at the left near the same location.

The death that I remember the most from that day was Bessie Baldwin’s. She was in her mobile home in Adams County. She was 99-years old. Had she not been in the path of that tornado or evacuated that day, she might have lived to 100-years old.

I hope you take a moment to think of the people we lost because of that day 10 years ago. Even though I have left broadcast meteorology, I still think of that day often. May it never happen again.

Today, I Become Part Of The Great Resignation. And I Feel Fine.

When I left broadcast meteorology on the last day of November in 2017, I was more than ready to go. I had been passed up for three promotions, yet I had the qualifications for all of them. I had an MBA secretly in my back pocket, and I took at job in the business world a few days after presenting a weather forecast in front of a chromakey.

Today, I leave that job.

When I joined, my focus was business intelligence – or a fancy way of saying “making business dashboards.” Over time, my position leaned into the decision scientist, data liaison, quality assurance, testing, database design, ETL, and algorithm development space as new data sources were created throughout the organization. I created a significant amount of value, and for only the second time in the last 1.5 years, I went into the office today. Since the pandemic began, this was my office 99.5% of the time:

After Christmas, I’ll start a new job. I’ll be going downtown often. I’ll be paying for parking. I’ll be in a room with people. I won’t be a SME for a while. It will be different, but here’s why I’m ready for it and how I know it was time and is time for a change:

  1. Give yourself three strikes. There will be days of success, and there will be days with failures. When I started my job, I had a great boss, and we were aligned. But it was a matter of time before that boss was pushed out, the new one was looking to make a mark, and the personal and political attacks came. Strike one. I was fortunate to move to a new team that worked with my existing one. I got to do more of the things I was good at, but a personal passion of mine was to work in sustainability. For years, I talked to those in the organization about recycling, reducing overhead, and other environmental sustainability efforts; I won an award within the company for pitching some of these ideas. Finally, my company developed a sustainability arm, there was an environmental sustainability leader opening, and I applied. I interviewed as the only internal candidate, and I pitched my highly profitable ideas. Despite this, I didn’t get the job. I was very qualified, but no offer came. Strike two. A few months ago, I got assigned to 100% hands-on-keyboard development work. I get that the work needed to be done, and I saw – at a high-level – the importance of the project. But I’m not a developer; I’m a business guy who knows some things about data. Strike three. The search was on, and a great opportunity came. Each of the three strikes gave me pause and an opportunity to reflect. I don’t like seeing strikes, and – frankly – I hope I know I never see them. I, however, allowed myself a count and time for reflection along the way. Was this really want I wanted to do? Was this the environment that I wanted around me? Was this the cultural fit I needed to succeed? You know when it’s time to get off the field; one of those ways is getting three strikes.
  2. Little things can matter. Is there flexibility in your job? Do you feel safe? Are you appreciated? Seemingly small things can have a significant impact on your happiness. In my “Strike Three” above, I was having a daily meeting with that team every day at noon (preventing me from going to lunch with other people and coworkers). This seemingly small daily meeting was a bottleneck. But there can also be sneakier bottlenecks or ones that wear you down over time. The phrase “merger and acquisition” is a bit of a misnomer; one often happens ahead of or without the other. When a company acquires another company, the merger piece takes time. When you work in a technology space, that often means you have legacy systems and new systems…and different credentials for each. These credentials expire over time. And there’s a possibility you can get locked out with the only way to get back in through a service desk and an IT ticket. Your productivity and success is a function of the tools you use, especially in a virtual, work-from-home world. Fatigue is real, and small tokens of respect – the “you get a lunch hour,” “thank you for your hard work,” and “I’m your boss, and I support you” matter. Along the way, assess your happiness as you work hard.
  3. Personal and political attacks are a red flag. If you aren’t valued or respected, take it seriously. You should not be making repeated mistakes, but know that you can’t take on the blame for larger scale, organizational-level mistakes or missteps. Mistakes will happen; take ownership of them, but don’t take on unnecessary blame…especially repeatedly. If the blame is fair, accept it; if it’s not, it’s a signal of a bigger and more personal problem. Those that are volatile and excessively blame others are unlikely to do you favors, and those close to them are likely not worth your time either (and are probably feeding the monsters).
  4. In time, you should be growing and – if you want to – advancing. I’ve learned a lot over the last 4 years, but I’m still in the same position. I want to advance in time, and I’ve found one of the best ways to do this is not vertically. When people talk about the “great resignation,” I think they are saying a few things: 1) there’s a lot of quantity but not as much quality of jobs out there, 2) the job and talent market is increasingly competitive, and you should strongly consider asking yourself if the benefits you have now are as good as you could get elsewhere, 3) people are realizing how stagnant they are, 4) people are realizing that they have at least some power in a world of large corporate influence, 5) one of the most powerful weapons employees have is to resign.
  5. Happiness, joy, and success are still king. It’s pretty simple: are you happy? Are you successful? Are you joyful? Is what you today checking those boxes? If not, how are you going to get those checked? Can it be done in your current environment? How do you get there? Whether you think life is short or life is long, disappointment, frustration, anger, and sadness is no place to wallow; now is the right time to be happy, successful, and joyful…or at least work towards getting there. Go forth and find them!

Lessons In Grief: What 25 Years Without My Father Has Taught Me

I was 11 years old. I was so young that I remember playing with Legos on the family room floor. At the time, I found it a point of pride to answer the phone in the house, but at 5:15pm that day a quarter-century ago, I didn’t know that the man on the other end of the phone would reply “Ummm…is your mother there?” and likely be a police officer or firefighter looking to deliver terrible news to my family. That evening was a blur, with friends and family coming to the house, and me being whisked away with the distraction of games and other fun activities.

My father and I at Kings Island, around 1990


As I discussed in a blog post back in 2015, my father was a passionate pilot who came to Cincinnati in 1979. Nearly all of the planes he flew were based at Lunken Airport, and that’s where I spent a weeks of my childhood with him. We also traveled as a family a lot; I look at my time like the career of The Beatles: a partnership built on love and care with many good memories but which also ended too soon. He died in a plane crash on September 17, 1996.


Now 25 years later, I have learned a lot from my father’s death, but I also have many questions. Because of my loss, I’ve also had to help, assist, or grow with people who have experienced tragedy. If you’ve lost someone you care about – whether it was recently or years ago – I want to share some things I’ve learned as an unfortunate veteran of loss.


1) It’s okay to grieve, and you should grieve.
Weakness – including sadness of frustration – are often dismissed or frowned upon in the world. There is a seemingly constant pressure everywhere to be strong and resilient. But – despite what everyone tells you – you should and must grieve when you experience a loss. Pushing hard-to-deal-with feelings aside only prolongs and delays the pain and keeps the healing that it found through hardship away. If you don’t take the time to process the loss or emptiness you’re feeling, your grief will just be waiting for you until you get to it, and the lack of resolution within will bring you down eventually. Grieving is not something you should fear; in the end, you’ll see that it was a path to your own peace. If you’re a person of faith, know that Matthew 5:4 says “Blessed are those who mourn, for they shall be comforted.”


2) You’re going to need to re-visit grieving sometimes. During the pandemic and through months of stress and strain, I realized that I never fully grieved. Grieving isn’t a process you go through and just put away; losses you experience – to some degree – last a lifetime. There will be many times you realize you didn’t resolve all of the issues or needed help. I wish my father was around when I was growing up to teach me about relationships or how to deal with highly political job environments. It would have been nice for him to guide me through career changes, too. He wasn’t here, and sometimes it’s just nice to have that voice to guide you…including when everyone else is quiet. In those moments, it’s easy to get frustrated or even angry. Why did he or she leave? Why where they taken from me? You can’t be too busy to work through it; you need to talk to someone, but you also need to understand that you can’t just deny feeling sad or frustrated – which you should be. You didn’t know that 20 years after they were gone that you would win an award and they would not be there. You didn’t know that after a tragedy would come a celebration that just felt emptier than usual because you just lost someone. There’s no way around it; you must work through it. Grieving is like rest; when your body and mind need it, there’s no substitution for it. And when you help others with your grieving, you’re going to need something constructive – perhaps even your own grieving – to heal and recharge.


3) Mentally prepare yourself for supporting others and their losses that may be bigger than yours. I remember I was in college when I got a call from the family member of a close friend. He said my friend wanted to see me immediately. He was grieving. His sister had just killed his mother, and he said I could help him with the grieving and calm him down. While I was happy to help my friend, my loss was far more extreme than mine. I had lost my father suddenly, but he had just lost his mother and likely contact with his sister for many years to come. How was I to help a friend through this? Somehow, when I walked up to my friend minutes later, I assured him we would get through this no matter how awful things seemed right now and gave him a hug. Outside of sleeping, I spent the days that followed sitting next to my friend. That experience reminded me that giving someone a hug, holding someone’s hand, and listening to them helps both you and others grieve. You don’t have to solve their problems, even if they are bigger than yours or what you think you can handle; the goal is to be their friend and support them unconditionally.

My father and I in Vancouver, Canada, 1994


4) Life goes on quickly for others and far more slowly for you. By the way, no one tells you this, and it’s frustrating. A week after my father’s death in 1996, I went back to school. People were happy to see me, but they didn’t know my father, and they didn’t understand my loss. From their point of view, I was just not at school for a week. My teachers came to my father’s funeral, but – again – they were just there to support me; my loss was not their loss. In hindsight, all of the adults that came to my father’s funeral and visitation over the previous weekend were back to work on that Monday; they were likely sad or still reflecting that day, but some had moved on. Fast forward to the clock 6 or 12 months in the future, and even more people had moved on. They were healing a lot faster than I was. At some point, your life, too, must continue. Being alone or isolated in your healing is not ideal. You’ve been dealt a blow, and it doesn’t seem fair. But this reality means it is important for you talk to someone, including a medical professional. There is no shame in talking to a psychiatrist or psychologist. Talking to friends is good, too, but you must quickly realize that they will grow tired of listening, especially without incremental progress; friends are not designed to keep you afloat after a significant tragedy or loss. As this blog post shows, you are not alone. A network of friends will help, but your help from them will be limited. Do not hesitate to talk to someone, and stay connected to the ones you love.


5) Keep your memories in a form that is up to date. I still have the C-tapes where my father recorded home movies. Physical media breaks down over time, so those C-tapes have gradually worn out. During the years I was grieving, recovering, and going through life, my memories on video have been sitting in a drawer…slowly breaking down. I realized this a couple of years ago, and I have converted over many of the individual tapes thus far. Those tapes are one of only a few ways I can hear my father’s voice again. I’m glad I remembered about these tapes and got the tools to keep the memories alive; I encourage you to do the same. Put your memories in a form where you can enjoy them for years to come. More importantly, keep a record of dates, times, and who is in the photos and videos you keep. You may not want to hear this, but other people you may know may die in the years that come; this is a reminder to not just treasure your time with them, but this is also a reminder to use their knowledge to help you know as much as you can about your memories. Who is in that photo? When was that video taken? Is there a good story that goes with that photo that you’ll want to tell your kids?

My father and I on the observation deck of the World Trade Center, 1992


6) A loss is a great time to see who really cares. When the funeral is over and people have to go home to their home and job, who will still contact you? Who will send cards? Who will call and see if you’re OK? Who actually cares about your happiness and well-being? A loss or tragedy can really do a number on you, but it’s also a teaching moment. You deserve friends that care and want you to be happy. Don’t make drastic moves, but take note of who just says “I’m sorry for your loss” and who actually cares about your health and peace.


7) Your mind will likely work differently after a significant loss. The times of loneliness in life seem longer than the times of joy. You’ll spend many hours of your life after a significant loss searching for answers, trying to understand why the healing isn’t coming faster, why you don’t feel better, why others around you never seem to bear the burdens you have, and why everyone else has seemingly forgotten about the loss you all just went through. You may also wonder what you could have done to prevent your loss. Why did my father go flying that day? Why did he fly an experimental plane? Why didn’t he tell me about that plane? I could be angry and upset; I have every right to be. But I’ve also learned that I could better spend my time talking to a professional, talking to a friend, or grieving. Your loss is part of your story. Being bitter will not help you; you can’t just wish them back. Life goes on, not backward. Your story, however, will be different because of the losses or tragedy you experience. Let that be your strength, not a weakness.


8) Days will get better, but the loss never completely goes away. As you get older, the memories become less clear, the number of days you don’t think about them or think about them as much increase, and the pain and frustration go down. Despite this, there will be days where you wish you were there to learn from or listen to the person you lost. Some days will feature reminders of those you lost, and some days will go smoothly without these memories entering your mind. As days go by, you also see what people told you along the way – “you will get through this,” “brighter days are ahead,” and “life goes on” – become true.

One of the last photos ever taken of my father in Alaska, 1996

I’ve learned a lot about happiness, success, and joy in the last few years. Many would say my father died doing what he loved. He did love flying, and it brought him joy. I could be upset from losing him in my life, but I – instead – am thankful for the limited amount of time we shared; we accomplished a lot in our years together. In time, you have to find a way to let the pain go and focus your life on what is good.

Rest in peace, Dad.

18 Ways To Become A Better Meteorologist

I’ve often reflected on my days working as a full-time meteorologist, and I wish I had learned some key lessons much earlier in my career. Alternatively, I wish there been someone to be honest and tell me these lessons of life years ago. Being a meteorologist is a challenge, a gift, a pain, and a reward. It’s easy to get lost in your career and model data, but after 10 years working as a meteorologist and 1.5 years working in the business world (and also time to reflect of my previous career), I wanted to share 18 ways to be the best meteorologist you can be:

1. Realize what your job really is. Suppose you’re an NBA player. What is your job? Is it to score the most points? Is it to be the game MVP? Is it to get the least number of fouls? It’s none of these. It’s actually to get the most number of people in the stands and watching you on TV as possible. It sounds selfish, but without tickets being sold and audiences watching you, you’re likely to be out of a job because your team needs to make money. Now suppose you as a businessperson at a local firm. What is your job? Is it to make the most numbers of sales in your peer group? Is it to give your customers a new product or service every month? Is it to build your resume? Just like the NBA, it’s none of the above…and it’s really to maximize the company’s profits and brand ethically, sustainably, and responsibly. Now you’re a meteorologist. What is your job? It is likely to increase your company’s profits. If you’re a operational meteorologist in the private sector, it’s to get people paying for your forecasts or seeing advertisements where they are posted. If you’re an National Weather Service meteorologist, you’re in a unique position: your job to to issue forecasts, outlooks, advisories, warnings, and watches that protect life and property…or create tools that fulfill this mission. If you’re a broadcast meteorologist, your job is to sustain or boost ratings through marketing and accurate forecasts (perceived or reality). You don’t have to have the best forecast to make the most money; you just have to have superior perception or superior value to customers.

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2. Start looking at those you forecast for as customers. Speaking of customers: those who see your products and forecasts are not “viewers” or “the public.” They are customers. If you think back to your summer jobs in high school and college, you served customers with a smile and by giving those who came into your business a product or service with value. People who read your forecasts or hear your weather presentation should be treated with respect and dignity; there’s no inferior customer, and you should work to give them what you want within reason.

3. Data and insights are the best way to be different. So you have a good forecast, and you need to make the company money through your customers. What’s the best way to attract them to you? Your bright and cherry personality? Your good looks? Your wonderful smile? Your baritone pipes? Talking like you’re on old time radio? Try a more humble approach: data and perspective. You have storms moving through; they are threatening and strong. What do your customers want? They want to know where the storms are, where they are moving, and what impact they will have. Your shiny personality won’t save you; you need to know how to use radar (reflectivity, velocity, spectrum width, and all of the dual-pol products) and know the threats before the National Weather Service does. They want to know where power outages are. They want to know whether this is normal; that’s where your experience comes into play. They want to have minute-by-minute updates of what conditions are like; knowing where to find airport and local weather sensor data will enable you to tell your customers with confidence what is and isn’t happening. Knowing where to find field and model data that no one else can will give you an advantage over your competitors but will also inform your customers. Telling your customers is one thing; showing your customers is another. Are you getting that data that tells your weather story into your forecasting or weather presentation system? You should be. If you’re not, figure out how to make it happen! Learn and innovate!

4. Aggregate and organize data behind the scenes. This will save you a lot of time and enable you to focus more on what’s important. Programming will help you assemble model guidance and quality control it so you don’t have to waste time each day when you’re forecasting. Surprise! There’s an earthquake! Are you ready? How are you going to be a source of information to your customers? If they get valuable insight and information from someone else, you risk losing your reputation and credibility…and, more importantly, perhaps your job and company’s profitability.

5. Ask your customers want they want, and give them some of what they don’t. Let’s go back to that NBA game where you’re a point guard. What do your customers want? They want to be entertained! They want you to win the game, especially by a game-winning-buzzer-beating shot! But let’s say you’re not a big 3-point player; on occasion, take a 3-point shot. Your fans won’t be expecting it or even want you to take the long shot, but they will be happy if you make it. As a meteorologist, that means things like explaining vorticity at a very basic level and why it matters. It also means varying your style; take a dare to be different at least occasionally, even if your customers like a pattern.

6. Forecast specifically, and lead with what you know. Your customers can get a wishy-washy forecast for “a chance of storms today” from anywhere. Lemme guess; you have the word “details” in the tease to your forecast? Your customers have seen that. Give your customers an accurate forecast. Say “scattered showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 7pm” with confidence. Some days, you’ll have models that are out to lunch. Tell the people what you know. When is the most likely time for rain? Can you say with confidence that the rain will be light? How would you describe the coverage, even if you’re a little off? What will happen, and what is to be determined? Don’t focus on potential or what won’t happen; focus on what is certain.

7. Don’t be a National Weather Service repeater. Be a meteorologist. If your prime responsibility is to just relay what the NWS says, you’re not using your degree in meteorology, and they are. You don’t need to tell your customers about every alert the NWS issues, including non-life-threatening alerts like Flood Advisories. If you feel that the National Weather Service is slow to the punch on an alert (or warning), tell your customers; you don’t need to wait for their blessing. They aren’t waiting for you, and you have the same degree (at least you should), so get movin’!

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8. The best starting forecast is the last shift’s forecast. It’s a lot easier to use the previous shift’s forecast as a starting point. Ask yourself: do I have justification to raise high temperatures 1° every day for the next 5 days. Think of your customers: do they care? Is it better to be consistent or forecast every shift not even considering the slew of model data the previous shift reviewed? Humble yourself, and recognize that there is value in your predecessors’ work. It’s also a lot less work to use the previous forecast as a starting point.

9. Don’t be so eager. If you’re willing to work turn-around shifts or go to work on a few hours of sleep, you’re likely too green. Don’t be a sucker. Say “no” at least occasionally. Do your job, and go home. Don’t get walked all over. If you’re working all of the holidays, weekend, and non-prime-time shifts, you’re getting the shaft. Over time, you should be advancing. You’ll look like on your “green years” and shake your head if you’re not careful.

10. Perspective requires research. When you’re going into a severe weather event, do you know the last time a tornado was confirmed in your area of responsibility? Do you know how rare an EF-2 or EF-4 tornado is for your area? When an insurance firm says that the damage caused by storms in your areas responsibility is estimated at $1 billion, does that seem right? If you’re expecting a high of 100°, are you prepared to answer questions from your customers about how often your area of responsibility sees a high of 100°? Regardless of what you do as a meteorologist, you need to provide perspective on weather events. Being a smiling face and personally won’t cover for you when you have to explain weather to your customers.

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11. Force yourself to get away from work. You can’t work all of the time. Time out some of your social media posts. Get a good significant other. Make friends. You need distractions from work or you’re going to burn yourself out. If you must post on social media during your days off, however, use your office tools to post data to a website where only you (or others, if you want) can grab it and post it; this is a good way to post your brand while not at work. Your job should only be a part of your life.

12. Be ready to move at any time. Whether you’re a National Weather Service meteorologist, a private sector meteorologist, or a broadcast meteorologist, it is highly likely you’re going to have to move during your time as a meteorologist. You’ll likely need to do it to advance. Suppose you’re in broadcasting, and you want to be a chief meteorologist. Do you think you’re going to get the job from your current chief when he or she leaves? That’s probably not going to happen. It does happen, but it’s not likely. It’s far more likely that you’re going to have to move to Omaha, Boise, San Antonio, or Huntsville to get your chief gig. And then you have to love that town and city and connect with it. Are you willing to do that? Now suppose you’re an NWS meteorologist and want to be a lead forecaster. Are you willing to move to North Platte, Nebraska to do that? You may have to. There aren’t a lot of meteorologist jobs in any given town, so if you want to advance in the industry, you’ll need to pack yourself or your family up and move at least once…and likely a few times before you’re in a semi-permanent spot. Going back to the earlier example, even the best NBA players got traded or went to a new team after a while.

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13. Corporate consolidation is not your friend. The modern way of doing big business – so it seems – is to buyout a company and collect their revenue while paying down the debt. Every good business, realistically, needs to monitor their cash flow (both revenues and costs) and increase profitability. One way to do this is to scale. If you stay with your company long enough, they will likely be bought. Even The Weather Channel got bought by IBM. The National Weather Service is likely exempt from this clause, but the broadcast and private sector will see this for years to come. When you get acquired, the rules change. Managers get fired and replaced with new ones. The expectations and demands of jobs are different. The culture changes, and – unfortunately – the ethics of your employer can change. If you don’t like your new company, there are a decreasing number of employers for which you can work (they are consolidating). If you leave Company A and go to Company B, there’s a chance Company A will buy Company B, and your soliloquy about “poor working conditions here at Company A” will come back to bite you. Leave on good terms as much as possible because the grass isn’t always greener and everyone is buying up land.

14. Ask yourself two questions frequently: “Do I enjoy doing this?” and “If not, how much longer am I going to do this?” When you first start in meteorology, you’re going to be bottom man or woman on the totem pole. You should be, but – in time – you should also advance. Unfortunately, some people don’t advance, and some – even worse – get demoted over time despite good performance. Meteorology and communication are inherently linked, and – despite what you may or may not know – companies often know who they want to communicate more than who they believe is the best meteorologist. With everyone marketing themselves as giving the “more accurate” forecast, companies need to position themselves to have an advantage. They will do that in any way possible. Your responsibilities may not be purely meteorology. Your schedule may be affected by what a company wants to do with you. You may be paired up with people that you like or don’t like. Your team may be great, or your team may not be great. Too few meteorologists regularly review their current situations and ask themselves if they are happy and successful. If you aren’t happy, set a time limit for how long you’re going to do what you’re doing. You’ll need to pay your dues early in the game, but you’ll also need to move on if you’re getting a raw deal.

15. Be careful what intellectual property you create for your company. If you’re not happy where you are, be mindful of what you’re building for your company. Do what is asked of you…but if you’re on your way out, don’t go sharing every idea you have or implementing new competitive advantage tools to make the company better. That idea you’re sharing or implementing may be the company’s once it leaves your lips. Instead, share your brainy ideas in a place and with a company that appreciates you and what you’re developing.

16. You aren’t ready for office politics, but you can and should learn them quickly. There is no high school or college course – that I know of – that prepares you for office politics. Careers in meteorology – like all forms of business – have politics. Companies put people where they want. Companies have their top picks and their bottom picks. You’ll have your days where you feel valued, and there will be other days when you feel very unimportant. Office politics is a complex game that you should not be a master at. Instead, I suggest distancing yourself from problematic people, not insulting others, and laying low. If you’re frustrated, don’t make a scene, and be respectful when solving problems. It is often better to be quieter and watch (and learn from) others who harm themselves and their career for fighting the law (and watching the law win).

17. There will always be someone younger than you who wants your job, and they will do it for less than you. It’s the truth. If you get greedy, companies will find someone else who will take less of a salary and fill your seat. Follow the trends of companies who hire meteorologists. Who are they moving and why? Who are they hiring and why? The trends will help you know whether you should stay or get out of the way.

18. The hardest thing to predict is human behavior. You will, however, be much better prepared if you look for clues and red flags constantly. Circling back around to the NBA player example above, being a basketball player is more than scoring points. You are part of a business, and if you aren’t giving what the business wants, your days are numbered. Understanding what the business wants you to do and mastering that goal is your number one job objective. Business needs, however, change…so you must be willing to listen, learn, and innovate. You must anticipate and monitor your company’s business goals and opportunities and prepare for them. If you’re the leagues best scorer, but the fans and business want close games to drive ratings and create a certain experience, you better strategize how and when you put points on the board. As a meteorologist, this means understanding your business, what they define as value, positioning yourself to fulfill the company’s goals.

Remember that most meteorologists that start their working life in meteorology usually end their working life in another field. It’s okay to evaluate your happiness and success frequently, and it’s okay to make a change. As long as you’re in meteorology, strive to stand out and be different in a positive way. Do they have “one of you?” If so, there’s a better fit for you elsewhere…or you should showcase a different talent. Michael Jordan wasn’t an actor, and he wasn’t in movies and getting endorsements because he was made for the big screen; he got the right kind of attention and he gave his customers want they wanted.

People Problems: A Lesson Learned And Who Must Surround You

Do you ever take your work home with you? I encourage you to do just the opposite: take the lessons learned at home to work with you.

After a relaxing Friday night of watching people learn the basics of blacksmithing, I found myself with two challenges Saturday: blindsiding news of investment (apparently) made too early and a heavy, emotional conversation about repairs and future building. Just two days earlier with a friend in town, I found myself in a dense discussion on the quality of our mutual friendships. There are few reminders in life more humbling than those that expose what we can’t control. Yet I found myself today not just enjoying brunch and preparing for the week ahead but also coming across a well-needed and well-timed indication that we can control more than initially thought.

I went to church this morning, and I’ve recently make a change to go to Crossroads in Oakley. Today was only my second time being at Crossroads, but senior pastor Brian Tome shared a sermon and wisdom that we can all take to work and safely bring home, too.

When was the last time to looked at those around you? Where is the knowledge base for friendships and relationships? What are your core convictions about friendships and relationships? How do you choose your friends, who you associate with at work, and even where you work? Is your barometer calibrated correctly?

After all, we are who we spend time with. If you want to be the best version of you, you need to understand who surrounds you.

Brian Tome – in his sermon that I heard today – defines four groups of people around you: VDPs (Very Draining People), VNPs (Very Neutral People), VEPs (Very Energizing People), and VIPs (Very Important People). You deserve to have VEPs and VIPs be the centerpiece of your life.

You know a VDP when you see one:

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You react negatively to VDPs because they are negatively affecting your life. Advice you have for them is turned around back on you. Your time with them is not productive, and there is no learning. There is a negative feedback: VDPs’ attitude has a high transmissivity. Cosmetically appealing or not, they are not worth your time.

If a VDP is an overcast day, then a VNP is a mostly cloudy day. A company that is breaking even isn’t much better than a company that is losing money. When the goal is to have relationships that add value to our life, a VNP is still a loss. If names surface after asking these questions, it’s probably time to do some spring cleaning:

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I like the spirit of being a gift in someone’s life. Presence alone isn’t a present.

What does where you want to live look like? What does where you want to work look like? What characteristics do the people in those places have? VEPs should be there, and they should be there in abundance, too. You’ll know you’re in good company when they add value to your life or they surface on this list:

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These people are your top-shelf peers who you connect with and make your life better. There are those, however, who are there to not just help and guide you, but they are also there to build, grow, and sacrifice for you. You need at least a couple of VIPs nearby:

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The VIPs are there to not just celebrate your life, but they actively make it better and are rarely if ever not willing to make you healthier, wiser, smarter, and more successful. Alternatively, you have the same or similar obligation to them.

Your friendships and relationships will drive the joy, happiness, and success of your life – at least in part – so it’s best to get good company around you. Filling your life with VEPs and VIPs is paramount to your success at home and work. You must also work to eliminate VDPs and VNPs from your life and world; let them go for – if nothing else – your own peace. VDPs and VNPs may return to your life, but they are not worth your time if they have no potential or intent to become a VEP or VIP quickly. Before this work begins, though, you must learn to question the relationships and friendships you have and identify the VDPs, VNPs, VEPs, and VIPs.

If you find yourself in a swarm of VDPs and VNPs, it’s time to move forward elsewhere. If you find your work environment making you into a VDP or VNP, it’s also a signal that you must move on.

Structure relates to function, and you can’t afford to sink to the level of being a VDP or VNP.

Who enters the room and immediately makes you smile? Who has sacrificed for you to make sure you were taken care of? Who is a blessing in your life and works to make you better? Answering these questions are paramount your success and your ability to make others successful.

Why The Dewpoint Needs To Be A Part Of Official NWS Weather Records

Everyone knows the word moisture. It is a fundamental ingredient for making precipitation or even keeping it away. It is the reason why it was humid today; the more moisture there is in the air (the higher the dewpoint), the more humid it is. The dewpoint is critical for knowing whether clouds will form or whether they will break apart. The dewpoint has either a direct or indirect impact on the strength, positioning, and timing of all weather systems. The dewpoint (a temperature) can impact the air temperature and what type of precipitation falls at the ground and aloft.

For some reason, though, the dewpoint is not listed in official weather records (kept by the National Weather Service in the United States). When you look at weather records for the month of July 2016 in Cincinnati (so far), the maximum, minimum, or average dewpoint is nowhere to be found:

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Records of air temperatures, precipitation, snowfall, wind speeds, and even snow depth are kept every single day. Yet the dewpoint is not here. Why?

The dewpoint is so important that is it listed not once, but twice in airport weather observations:

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The red number is the dewpoint to the nearest whole number (°C), and the green number is the dewpoint (°C) in tenths (and the first “0” or 1″ here is used to indicated whether the dewpoint is positive or negative, respectively). It’s important enough to go here, but not in official weather records?

The dewpoint is so important it is measured vertically using a weather balloon (to the top of the troposphere, the layer of the atmosphere that we live in and where weather occurs) twice a day at numerous sites around the country and the world. Here’s the weather balloon “sounding” from 8pm Thursday night from Wilmington, Ohio:

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Guess what the green line is? It’s the dewpoint! It’s right next to the temperature in red! Wind directions and speeds (listed as barbs on the far right) are also listed. And that’s it for a weather balloon sampling! Every other variable is derived. If the dewpoint makes the variable list here, it should be in official weather records

You want to know what the record lowest or highest dewpoint was at a pressure of 850 millibars (about 5,000 feet above the ground) back to the early days of when weather balloons were launched? Here you go! It’s all here! Want to know how the average dewpoint this month compared to last month or last July? It’s not easy; even the most data savvy meteorologists will need time to make this calculation.

Keep in mind, temperature ranks for a week, month, year, decade, or ANY stretch of time are done by averaging the average temperatures for each day in that period. The average temperature for the day is simply the high and the low divided by 2. I can calculate the average temperature for a year or month and compare it to a similar length of time easily because high, low, and average temperatures are listed in official weather records. High, low, and average dewpoints are not. Comparing the average dewpoint for one year to another can take hours. It should take minutes.

Part of the argument is that dewpoint records don’t go as far back as temperature records. Hourly dewpoint records for Cincinnati go back to the late 1930s, but temperature, rainfall, and snowfall records go back to 1870, 1870, and 1893 (officially and respectively). So it’s not the same period of record…but so? Records are records. The first half of 1872’s temperature records in Cincinnati are gone; they were lost in a fire. We didn’t throw out the entire record on account of some records being lost. Jackson, Kentucky’s weather records (at the National Weather Service office there) began in 1981, some 100 years after Cincinnati’s records began. Still, we aren’t throwing out weather records from Jackson because their period of record is less than 40 years.

It’s time to add the maximum, minimum, and average dewpoint to official climate records for the United States. Moisture in the air is fundamental to understanding what type of weather occurs and how poor conditions will be. The public, not just meteorologists, should have knowledge of how weather conditions are changing so that we can see how moisture is moving over time and space. With a large enough period of record in place, dewpoint records will add to the ongoing discussion about climate change and give all a better indication of whether certain areas are more humid or less humid over time.

The Best Gift Tim Hedrick Ever Gave Me

Long before I got a bobblehead, grocery bags with his name on them, worked with him, spoke with him on the phone, or trained to be a meteorologist, Tim Hedrick did something for me that put the pendulum in motion. When you help or speak with someone today, you’ll never know who you’ll inspire over 20 years later.

When I learned of his death, I immediately went looking for photos of or with him. I only found one with him, and I found several of him. A few hours later, I realized I had one memory of him that I have had for over 25 years.

I was at my mother’s house a day later, looking through bookshelves and bins in my old room. I couldn’t find that memory. A few days later, my mother thought I might have it at my home. I went through my bookshelves, and I found it.

The memory of him is from when I was a young child, approximate 5 to 8 years old (I can’t remember exactly). I went to the Blue Ash branch of the Hamilton County Public Library one morning during the summer for a short weather presentation Tim was giving; Tim was just starting a career in Cincinnati. I remember my mother taking me there, but I don’t remember the presentation. Before the presentation, my mother encouraged me to bring something for me to get Tim’s autograph. I brought a book my mother had gotten for me through the Scholastic school catalog (remember those)? Because I was young, it was simple and appropriate for an early grade school student.

After days of searching, I found that book today:

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The book is very fragile. The book is intact, but it wouldn’t take much to get pages falling out of the book. Inside of the book’s front cover is a special message:

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In an ironic twist as I read these words today, rays of sunlight started pouring from behind the clouds through my window.

As I have mentioned an earlier blog post on April 9, 1999, my love of meteorology was strong as a young child, waned some through grade school (mainly by the amount and other types of school work), and developed again in the wake of the Blue Ash/Montgomery/Symmes Township tornado.

I suppose things end about where they begin. My time with Tim began with sun, had days of turbulence, days of storms, days with bumps, but ended with sunshine. No bobblehead will inspire you to follow a dream, but words of inspiration early in the game seemed to do the trick for me.

How My Father Still Inspires Me 19 Years After His Death

Everyone has dates that cannot be scrubbed from their mind. September 17, 1996 is at the top of my list. It is the day that my father suddenly died.

Long before his death, my father lived his dream. He was born in Freeport, Long Island, and his father – my grandfather – was a pilot for TWA. My grandfather was a navigator and often flew flights from New York to Europe on Lockheed Constellations. Because of this, mMy father was destined to be a pilot from the time he was born. He got his pilots license before his drivers license. He soloed in an airplane at age 16 in 1966.

My father worked from crop dusting all the way to being a corporate pilot. He had licenses for multi-engine planes and even for hot air balloons. He loved to fly.

He shared that love of flying with me. He refused to let a commercial airline pilot give me my first flight; he took me up for a quick flight just days before I flew commercially:

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As I grew, his love for aviation and flying remained strong. I spent a lot of time in a cockpit as a child:

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I always thought it was cool to be in a plane and see all of the dials and controls in front of me. Perhaps it was the view out the window of one of my father’s planes that got me interested into weather. My mother can’t remember a time where I haven’t loved weather, and I don’t think my father could either.

We would travel as a family in airplanes. Road trips were only for trips to Indiana to see family or nearby to Rocky Fork Lake.

My father was a proud Purdue University graduate. After living in Long Island very early in his life, his parents moved to northwestern Indiana. His love for aviation grew there; after getting his license, he went to Purdue and focused on aerospace and aviation. He wanted to make flying his career. Years later, when he had a son, it was clear he would fly him places and Purdue would be a place his son respected. Even at Acadia National Park, a picture of Neil Armstrong (the first man on the moon and a Purdue graduate) holding a Purdue flag covered my father’s shirt and mine:

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Unsurprisingly, my father was a USAF ROTC Cadet. The Army or Navy did not have the draw that the Air Force did…for obvious reasons.

My father came to Cincinnati in 1979. He flew Challengers, Lear Jets, and Hawkers for Cincinnati-based Federated Department Stores and Chemed. He was based out of Lunken Airport for his job but also as a private pilot. He owned numerous airplanes, and he loved to take his wife and son to places. He was a flying instructor, and even gave me two lessons was I was 11 years old.

Of course, some of those trips were related to aviation, such as Kitty Hawk, North Carolina:

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Other trips were to Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, or other scenic spots. With his help, I was fortunate enough to visit over 40 states by age 11.

Because he loved to fly, he was away from home a lot. My mother was a teacher, and she was often there to pick me up from school or get me to practice as I grew older. Despite being under the care of my mother most of my childhood, my father seemed to make it a priority to help me and bond with me when he was around. For the first ten years of my life, I seemed to bond with him more than my mother.

My father was a determined man. As a pilot, he had no choice but to get the plane on the ground every time; that way of thinking translated into other aspects of his life, such as putting a basketball pole 10 feet under ground at my childhood home when I was 9. It took all day, but that pole was getting in the ground:

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Some of my memories with him as a child have faded with time, but many have lasted to this day thanks to photos.

Unfortunately, my relationship with my father ended suddenly on September 17,  1996. He was flying in east-central Indiana when the plane he was flying had a mechanical malfunction and crashed.

I remember the phone call as an 11-year-old. I answered the phone, and a man said “Is your mother there?” I passed the phone to my mother, and went back to playing with Legos. Several minutes later, I remember looking up at my mother crying and still on the phone. She got off of the phone to deliver the news, and in a matter of hours, there were dozens of people at the house.

There were a lot of people at my father’s funeral. He was well liked, and I remember how many people had good things to say about him.

19 years later, I still think of him and how life would be different with him here. My mother and I both agree that our lives now would be similar in many ways to what would have happened if he was still here, but we still wonder what specifically would be different.

I learned a lot about the grieving process in the years following my father’s death; most importantly, I learned that the process is different for everyone. Friends grieving from murder or a prolonged, drawn-out death have reached out to me in the last 19 years, and I’ve learned that being there long term and just being a shoulder to cry on or a person to listen is the right way to handle those situations. Being exposed to the grieving process at an early age made me realize how unique our experiences in life are.

On a daily basis, I think of my father when I check weather conditions. One of the prerequisites to getting clearance to takeoff is knowing the weather conditions at the airport for which you are departing. I am reminded of my father writing down weather conditions on a piece of paper in the cockpit and talking to the control tower every time I check the latest weather observation at Lunken Airport. With aviation being so closely linked to weather, it makes sense that I am a meteorologist today because of what my father taught me and/or exposed me to.

On Wednesday, I was at Lunken Airport for a meeting, I took a photo of the terminal not just because of it’s scenic qualities, but because it reminds me of my father:

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Nearly 20 years after his death, I still remember my father being a “by the book” man. His friends – many of whom I still talk to and know very well to this day – remember him as Dale “know when to have fun, but default to sticking to the rules” Dimmich. He did not cut corners, and he kept the eye on the goal. Safety was his top priority, but taking care of others – including his passengers – was a close second. While my dad was known for these things, those around me can make a strong case that those qualities have been passed on to me.

There were moments where my father was a fighter and stuck up for what was right. There were times where he contemplated issues and got frustrated. He disagreed with people. There were some that got in his way or clawed at him. I saw he was human; even in the limited about of time I spent with him, I learned that getting it all right was not always easy and was sometimes unattainable.

Most importantly, my father taught me about a dream. He wanted to fly, and he became a pilot; similarly, I loved weather, and I became a meteorologist. His death, however, taught me a lot about how distancing yourself from the dream (even if occasionally) can be a good thing. Had my father not being flying in that plane September 17, 1996, my father would likely be still be here. I have no way of knowing what would have happened had he not been flying that day, but I’ve thought a lot about that flight. Do I celebrate him dying doing what he loved, or do I wish he had taken fewer flights to decrease his odds of something going wrong? Either way, I know there are hazards in any job, but I’ve often pushed myself back from the desk to enjoy life elsewhere. Time away from the hazards is not only good for the soul, but it may tip the scale just enough to make life longer.

The metaphor of flying – from takeoff to taxi and from arrival to departure – is a good metaphor of life. My father and I had 11 years together; that’s not a lot of time, especially when you don’t remember half of those years. What my father did do, however, is plant a seed of success in me. He never saw the plant grow to its peak, but he gave it the support to live.

It’s Time To Revisit Weather Safety And Personal Responsibility

Weather has the power to be inconvenient and – unfortunately – can be a threat to life and property. The danger that weather presents depends on the situation; lightning may not be a significant threat to you in your home, but it is a very significant threat to you if you’re outside.

College football is starting up. Baseball games have been going strong all summer. Play has been delayed at GABP almost 22 hours this year alone this and over 27 hours as a team (home and away games combined). Rain, wind, hail, and lightning are all legitimate reasons to stop a game, but lightning seems to be the hardest reason for fans to accept. Here are two examples of people on Twitter not happy with a lightning delay:

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Not only did they spell “lightning” wrong, but they don’t seem to understand the importance of lightning. Lightning can injure and kill, and exactly where and when lightning will develop is not easy to predict. The reasons why officials and stadium staff suspend games are not always easy to accept, but they are important reason.

This discussion about lightning during sporting events is just a small part of a larger discussion on weather safety. Weather safety is not just communicating risk; it is also about more than weather education and awareness.

We need to revisit the basics. When I say “we,” I mean everyone; it’s not just a thing for meteorologists. We need to do more than just revisit policies and procedures; we need to start simple. Here are some steps we all need to take:

1) KNOW SPECIFICALLY WHERE YOU ARE AT ALL TIMES DURING THREATENING OR INCONVENIENT WEATHER
Some of you might laugh at this, but this is serious stuff. Too many people in this country don’t know where exactly where they live, exactly where they work, and exactly where they travel to throughout the day. It is very important that you know the county, the approximate distance and direction from nearby towns, and what time it is when there is a threat for inconvenient or storms. Do you know what part of the county for which you live? When you’re at the shopping mall, do you know what city you are near? When you’re watching TV at home and a meteorologist says a city where a storm is, do you know where you are relative to that city? You should. Geography and meteorology are interdisciplinary sciences. Knowing a storm is nothing if you don’t know where it is; on the other hand, if you know where you are but don’t know where storms are, you may be in trouble or unaware that significant weather is coming your way. Know local landmarks, and know where you are relative to those landmarks. Know what part of the city, county, and state you are in at all times, especially if there is a threat for thunderstorms or other threatening weather. Know where you are on a radar map.

2) WARNINGS RELATED TO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ISSUED FOR POLYGONS AND PARTS OF COUNTIES, NOT ENTIRE COUNTIES ANYMORE
In 2007, the National Weather Service started issuing Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado, and Flash Flood Warnings as polygons (or shapes) to clearly identify where severe weather impacts are focused. These warnings are not issued for entire counties anymore; this was done in the past, but it is not done in the present nor will it be done in the future. It is possible that part of your county is in a Tornado Warning while other parts are not. Here is an example of a Tornado Warning from March 2, 2012 in northern Kentucky:

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The Tornado Warning is outlined in red. The cities of Crittenden, Butler, Moscow, and Neville are in the Tornado Warning. Walton, Independence, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Williamstown, and Alexandria are just outside of the warning. Here is the same Tornado Warning graphic with radar data included:

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The radar shows intense radar echoes in the northern half of the Tornado Warning and also just north of the Tornado Warning.

The city of Crittenden and Dry Ridge (pictured) are both in Grant County, Kentucky. Suppose you live in Dry Ridge, and you hear a Tornado Warning is issued for part of Grant County. Should you take cover? Dry Ridge is not in the red box, and it is not in this Tornado Warning; therefore, you do not need to take cover at this time. However, there are strong storms in your areas, so you should be remain alert for warnings. This leads in easily into my next point.

3) NO WARNING DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT STORMS WON’T BE INCONVENIENT OR THREATENING
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in this country are issued when a storm is producing or is capable of producing wind in excess of 60mph, hail 1″ in diameter or larger, or a tornado. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are not issued for lightning or heavy rain. Do not expect a warning to be issued if inconvenient weather is moving close to where you are. Heavy rain and lightning can still cause injury (or even death) if you put yourself in harm’s way. For your safety, you should always go inside when you see lightning. Heavy rain can lead to localized flooding; if you drive fast through heavy rain or standing water on roads, you can hurt yourself or get yourself in a bad situation, even if a warning was not warranted.

4) WARNINGS, WATCHES, AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT ISSUED FOR LIGHTNING
As I said above, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has specific requirements for wind, hail, or a tornado. There are no lightning requirements for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning to be issued. If you’re outside in a non-severe thunderstorm, you can still be struck by lightning. It only takes one strike to injure or kill you. The odds of getting injured or killed go up rapidly if there is intense lightning in a storm or cluster of storms. Being safe means always going inside when there is lightning nearby.

5) YOU SHOULD HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION
Relying on one source to get severe weather alerts is a terrible idea. Watching television is a great source while you are awake, but your television will not alert you when you are sleeping. Having a NOAA weather radio in your home is important, as it can alert you with a loud noise day or night should a warning or watch be issued for your county and assuming you have your radio programmed correctly. Having a smart phone app to alert you to severe weather is great, but you should have more than one way to be notified of severe weather information. Cell phones can stop working, and batteries can die.

I would recommend having at least three ways to get severe weather bulletins. A correctly-programmed NOAA weather radio, a text alert service for your smart phone, television, and an e-mail alert service are all good sources to get this information. However…

6) A SEVERE WEATHER ALERT NOTIFICATION IS DESIGNED TO ENCOURAGE YOU TO SEEK ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION
A text or e-mail alert service will typically tell you that your county or location has been placed in a severe weather warning. Due to character and text limitations, it is best to go to the television or your computer to verify where warnings, watches, and advisories have specifically been issued. Your text alert service may mention your county, but as discussed above, the National Weather Service issues severe weather warnings as polygons, not as a list of counties; this means that your location may not be in a warning, but another part of your county may be. It is important that you know and seek out this information; your life and property may depend on it.

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You may have seen an alert like the one above on your smartphone. These are called Wireless Emergency Alerts, a service created by FEMA, the FCC, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Weather Service. While these alerts are great, they are incomplete due to text and technology limitations. “This area” is not specific. If you received this alert, you are encouraged to get additional severe weather information from another source and – as suggested – seek shelter immediately.

7) OUTDOOR WARNING SIRENS ARE MEANT FOR THOSE OUTDOORS
You should not wait until you hear an outdoor weather warning siren to seek shelter from a dangerous storm. These sirens are designed to notify those who are outdoors that threatening storms are approaching. Depending on location, these are usually issued for Tornado Warnings but may also be issued for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. You should know when these sirens are sounded for your county. You should not consider outdoor warning sirens as the only way to get severe weather notifications, including if you are outside. As mentioned above, an outdoor weather warning siren should encourage you to seek shelter and additional information about where storms are, what threats they pose, and additional warning information.

8) TAKING ADEQUATE SHELTER IS ULTIMATELY YOUR RESPONSIBILITY
Severe weather alerts are great, but they mean nothing if you don’t take action. For example, this sign was displayed during the University of Cincinnati game this past Saturday night:

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This was the student section on the opposite side of the stadium shortly after the photo above was taken:

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This is not the right response. With all due respect to U.C. Bearcat fans, there should be no students in the stands with that message on the screen. While a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning was not in effect (and didn’t need to be), there was frequent lightning in the area. That was the reason for the message on the scoreboard. I feel a personal responsibility for the safety of these students given that I was one of the meteorologists that worked with the University of Cincinnati to evacuate the field and the stands.

If a meteorologist on TV says to take cover, do it. If the National Weather Services suggests going to the basement in their warning, do it. If you see lightning during your outdoor activity, take cover, and don’t wait for someone else to give you a warning. Whether there’s a warning or not, you should take your safety seriously. If you feel your life is in danger, take shelter and get out of harm’s way immediately. There’s no going back once you are injured or killed by a storm.

More Storms Than Usual This Month, Summer, And Year?

Many in the Tri-State feel that this has been an abnormally stormy month, summer, or year. Perhaps it is the intensity of the rain, the frequency of the storms, or the lack of days with abundant sunshine that have people thinking there have been more storms than usual this year.

I keep a database of Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado, and Flash Flood Warnings for the area. The records go back to when the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Wilmington, Ohio first began issuing warnings in 1995. While we are not halfway through the month of August, the Tri-State Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings counts (from January 1st to August 31st) are below the averages and records for the same time period. The Severe Thunderstorm Warning count is above average:

aug10-warnings

These numbers suggest this has been a stormy year in some ways, but not in all. Many forget how stormy 2011 was. 2011 was also the wettest year on record in Cincinnati (with yearly records dating back to 1871).

Many have said that this August has been abnormally stormy. One way to measure this is by comparing the August Severe Thunderstorm Warning count from one August to others:

aug10-augsvrs

On average, there 12 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are issued in the Tri-State each August; so far in 2015, 17 have been issued. By this measure, it has been a stormy August, but more warnings were issued in 2007 and 2010. It is worth noting that August 2015 has not yet ended, so that count is not final.

Has this been an abnormally stormy summer? If you compare the Tri-State Severe Thunderstorm Warning count from June 1st to August 31st, there have only been 3 years since 2007 with more warnings:

aug10-summer

On average, 59 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are issued in the Tri-State each summer (June, July, and August combined). While we are ahead of the average, we are unlikely to break the summer record of 103 warnings set in 2008.

For all intents and purposes, 2013 and 2014 were somewhat quiet severe weather years. No tornadoes were confirmed in the Tri-State during 2013, and 5 were confirmed in Tri-State during 2014. For perspective, the yearly average (1950-2014) is roughly 3 tornadoes. Flash Flood and Tornado Warning counts were below the 1995-2014 average in both 2013 and 2014. The Tornado Warning count was below average in 2013. If you remember the last couple of years, 2015 is a stormy year. Calling 2015 “stormy” compared to 2011 or 2012 is a much harder case. There were 16 confirmed tornadoes in the Tri-State during 2012.

I’ve found that when people compare seasons, they often compare it to last year or the previous season. 2011 and 2012 were stormy years and – in many ways – stormier than 2015.

There are also dozens of ways to measure how stormy a period of time is. 2015 has been a stormy year for Brown County, where three flash flood fatalities occurred earlier this year. Those are the first storm-related deaths in Brown County since March 2, 2012. Where you live, what you see, or what you doing see influences your memory of storms.