Severe Threat Tonight And Early Wednesday

The Cincinnati area remains under a SLIGHT risk for severe storms late tonight and early Wednesday; the Storm Prediction Center has placed the southwestern Ohio Valley, the southeastern Mississippi Valley, and much of the Mid-South under a MODERATE risk for severe storms tonight and early Wednesday:

jan29-spcoutlook

This morning’s model runs suggests damaging straight-line winds will be the main severe weather threat in the Tri-State early tomorrow. A line of showers and thunderstorms has already formed over the Mississippi Valley and southern Plains; this line will be pushing east through the night and tomorrow. The latest high-resolution WRF model has a squall line along the Wabash and Mississippi River at 1am tonight:

jan29-6zwrfradar

By 7am, the WRF has the squall line (and perhaps a secondary line showers and thunderstorms) moving the Tri-State:

jan29-12zwrfradar

By 1pm Wednesday, the WRF has rain and thunderstorms moving east of Cincinnati and through the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas:

jan29-18zwrfradar

The WRF has a large swath of 60mph+ winds just above the ground (in orange and bright red) in the western Ohio Valley by midnight ET:

jan29-5zwind

By 4am, that swath of gusty to damaging winds has pushed east into the Tri-State:

jan29-9zwind

Strong winds may proceed storms late tonight.

Even the latest HRRR model has damaging winds (near the arrow and as thunderstorms come through) in southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana, and western Kentucky by midnight:

jan29-hrrr5zwinds

While the best tornado threat will be well southwest of the Tri-State early Wednesday, the tornado threat (while it is small) can’t be ruled out. SPC’s version of the WRF model has the best potential for rotating thunderstorm updrafts along the Mississippi River at 1am tonight:

jan29-udhelicity6z

By 6am, the WRF suggest there may be some rotation in thunderstorms moving through the Tri-State:

jan29-udhelicity11z

Summary

Damaging straight-line wind continues to be the main severe weather threat locally early Wednesday. Tornadoes and large hail will secondary threats, with the greatest threat for each staying southwest of the Tri-State. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving through tomorrow morning between 2 and 11am, with the best threat for rain and storms (including strong and/or severe storms) between 5 and 9am.

Please stay safe and weather aware tonight and early Wednesday. Having a NOAA Weather Radio on and programmed correctly could save your life!

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s