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https://scottdimmich.com/2014/08/18/my-take-on-upcoming-spc-severe-weather-risk-changes/ Just Weather And Other Musings Mon, 04 Jul 2016 20:02:02 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.2 https://scottdimmich.com/2014/08/18/my-take-on-upcoming-spc-severe-weather-risk-changes/#comment-60 Mon, 04 Jul 2016 20:02:02 +0000 https://scottdimmich.com/?p=1403#comment-60 All I know is that no matter how terrible weather patterns have been nationally, since the original posting here I have never seen an intellicast or WSI map that had any area indicated that goes beyond “slight”. I went though a stormy summer month once looking at the forecast every day and again not once above the “yellow”. Is “enhanced” reserved for global destruction?

]]> https://scottdimmich.com/2014/08/18/my-take-on-upcoming-spc-severe-weather-risk-changes/#comment-59 Tue, 19 Aug 2014 03:19:16 +0000 https://scottdimmich.com/?p=1403#comment-59 “Marginal” is NOT part of the current “Slight” category, check all the charts you posted and you’ll see the marginal category is below the current slight criteria!
Quoting the SPC Product Description Document (PDD) – “the current SLIGHT risk includes a rather broad range of probabilities of severe weather potential. Partners have requested the SPC Categorical Outlooks include a new category for the high-end slight risk areas that can currently only be seen in the SPC Probabilistic Outlooks. The SPC will add a new category for areas of high-end slight labeled as “Enhanced” risk.”
The current SLIGHT risk category covers the entire 15% to 45% range for Severe Thunderstorms and 5% to 15% for Tornados, the new ENHANCED (Enhanced Slight) category corrects this.
Examples and a link to the PDD can be found here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/dy1-3example/
In the first example the entire East Coast is in the Enhanced Slight category, something that would not be shown under the current system (again, the current SLIGHT category covers too broad a range), examples 2, 4 & 5 are similar.

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