{"id":2566,"date":"2017-02-24T16:45:24","date_gmt":"2017-02-24T16:45:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/?p=2566"},"modified":"2017-02-24T16:45:24","modified_gmt":"2017-02-24T16:45:24","slug":"near-record-warmth-fuels-severe-threat-tonight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/?p=2566","title":{"rendered":"Near Record Warmth Fuels Severe Threat Tonight"},"content":{"rendered":"

Temperatures will soar into the mid 70s this afternoon with more sun than clouds. Today’s record high temperature is 72\u00b0, set in 1930. The all-time record high temperature in Cincinnati for February is 76\u00b0, set on February 10, 1932.<\/p>\n

As of 11am, temperatures are already in the upper 60s and lower 70s:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-11amtemps\"<\/p>\n

For February standards, the dewpoint is very high at 55\u00b0 as of 11am:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-11amdewpoints2\"<\/p>\n

For perspective, the average February dewpoint in Cincinnati is 24\u00b0, and the record highest dewpoint in Cincinnati.<\/p>\n

As of 11:30am, the\u00a0entire\u00a0Tri-State is in an ENHANCED risk<\/strong> for severe thunderstorms through tonight:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-spc\"<\/p>\n

This threat will be maximized this evening. More sun than clouds will lead to temperatures rising into the 70s as instability grows:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-1015amclouds\"<\/p>\n

Plan for a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon before isolated showers and storms begin<\/strong> developing between 4pm and 6pm. Wind speeds will increase this afternoon (sustained between 15 and 25mph by 5pm):<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-afternoon\"<\/p>\n

Rain and storms will increase in coverage and intensity this evening as a cold front nears:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-evening\"<\/p>\n

Rain and storms will push east of the Tri-State between 12am and 3am. Notice temperatures will fall through the 60s and 50s this evening and then through the 50s, 40s, and into the 30s late tonight:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-overnight\"<\/p>\n

Over the last few days, I’ve been posting a impact graphic for Friday’s severe threat. Now that it’s Friday, I’ll break the threats down by period, starting with late this afternoon:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-impacts1\"<\/p>\n

This is a minimal severe weather impact, but this evening’s severe threat will be much higher with damaging straight-line wind being the main concern (and tornado and large hail being secondary threats):<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-impacts2\"<\/p>\n

The threat for severe storms will end and be focused east of Cincinnati in the early overnight:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-impacts3\"<\/p>\n

Since 1995 (when the National Weather Service in Wilmington opened), the record for the greatest number of warnings in the Tri-State during a single February is 12 (set in 2002). There are an average of 3 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued in the Tri-State each February.<\/p>\n

So what might the radar look like? Guidance is still messy,\u00a0so I encourage you to follow the overall trend in these graphics.\u00a0<\/strong>Here is what high-resolution guidance suggests the radar might look like at 4pm today:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-4pmradar\"<\/p>\n

Basically, storms are starting to develop along\/north\/west of I-71, but the coverage is limited.\u00a0<\/strong>The main event comes this evening. Let’s fast forward to 7pm:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-7pmradar\"<\/p>\n

Storms are increasing in intensity and coverage. Other guidance suggests two lines of storms forming near and west of the Tri-State.\u00a0<\/strong>Let’s go to 10pm:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-10pmradar\"<\/p>\n

Lines of showers and storms are sweeping into and through the Tri-State late in the evening.\u00a0<\/strong>Some storms may be strong or severe at this time. Let’s fast forward to 1am Saturday:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-blog-1amsaturday\"<\/p>\n

Rain and storms are moving through southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky.\u00a0<\/strong>Strong and severe storms are still a possibility at this time, but the overall threat is diminishing.<\/p>\n

Have a way to get watch and warning information today and tonight.\u00a0Do not think because the sun sets tonight that the threat for severe weather is dropping.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Temperatures will soar into the mid 70s this afternoon with more sun than clouds. Today’s record high temperature is 72\u00b0, set in 1930. The all-time record high temperature in Cincinnati for February is 76\u00b0, set on February 10, 1932. As of 11am, temperatures are already in the upper 60s and lower 70s: For February standards, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2566\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}