{"id":844,"date":"2013-02-25T00:09:18","date_gmt":"2013-02-25T00:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/?p=844"},"modified":"2013-02-25T00:09:18","modified_gmt":"2013-02-25T00:09:18","slug":"where-the-upper-level-low-goes-later-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/?p=844","title":{"rendered":"Where The Upper-Level Low Goes Later This Week"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is no doubt that a cold front will sweep through the Tri-State late Monday night and early Tuesday. This front will bring rain, and it will – eventually – help to bring cold air from Canada into the Ohio Valley. In the wake of this cold front, an upper-level area of low pressure will get cut-off from the upper-level flow; in turn, this upper-level low will sit and spin over us until the jet stream can dislodge it to our northeast. While there is high confidence this upper-level low will stick around into the second half of the work week, there is great uncertainty about when it will leave.<\/p>\n

Both this morning’s GFS and ECMWF agree on a subtle warm-up from Sunday into Monday. I’m forecasting a high temperature of 48\u00b0 Monday afternoon and a low temperature of 36\u00b0 Monday night. The latest model data suggests the temperature may rise late Monday night as low-level moisture gets pulled into the region on a strengthening east-southeasterly wind.<\/p>\n

The GFS model has a surge in warmth midnight Tuesday in the Tri-State ahead of the cold front:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-gfs12amtues\"<\/a><\/p>\n

This morning’s ECMWF model is nearly identical to the ECMWF at midnight Tuesday; it has a surge in warmth ahead of the front and the upper-level low centered over the Mid-South:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-ec12amtues\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The forecast gets a bit messier nearing mid-week. This morning’s GFS model has the ill-defined upper-level low in the Ohio Valley by 8am Wednesday morning:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-gfs8amwed\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The latest ECMWF model run has the upper-level area of low pressure over Cleveland by 8am Wednesday…and brings slightly colder air to Cincinnati by then compared to the GFS model:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-ec8amwed\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The GFS and ECMWF aren’t really that different by mid-week, but the differences between the GFS and ECMWF become greater nearing next weekend. The GFS has the main upper-level low over New England and a secondary low trying to form over the interior Midwest:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-gfs8pmthur\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Also, notice the colder air (shades of blue) extending out of southern Canada. If you assume the GFS model verifies, this re-enforcing shot of cold air will mean clouds, flurries, and snow showers will stick around through next Saturday night and Sunday. This morning’s ECMWF model has a different solution; it says the main upper-level low is over Boston, has no secondary low forming west of the Great Lakes, and has no big surge of arctic cold air diving south out of Canada:<\/p>\n

\"feb24-ec8pmthur\"<\/a><\/p>\n

If you believe the ECMWF model, snow showers and flurries will stick around through Friday but will be gone by Saturday and Sunday.<\/p>\n

Which model do I believe? I’m leaning towards the GFS for now, but I still give a nod to the ECMWF; I have flurries and snow showers in the Tri-State Thursday, Friday, and Saturday and only flurries early Sunday.<\/p>\n

This forecast will likely need to be revised as next weekend nears. Regardless of which model you believe, winter is coming back later this week!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is no doubt that a cold front will sweep through the Tri-State late Monday night and early Tuesday. This front will bring rain, and it will – eventually – help to bring cold air from Canada into the Ohio Valley. In the wake of this cold front, an upper-level area of low pressure will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=844"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/844\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}