{"id":940,"date":"2013-03-19T20:10:32","date_gmt":"2013-03-19T20:10:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/?p=940"},"modified":"2013-03-19T20:10:32","modified_gmt":"2013-03-19T20:10:32","slug":"when-is-a-warm-up-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/?p=940","title":{"rendered":"When Is A Warm-Up Coming?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Meteorological spring began on March 1st, but astronomical spring begins Wednesday morning at 7:02am eastern time. Despite what the calendar shows, it won&#8217;t feel like spring tomorrow or any day in the near future.<\/p>\n<p>The colder-than average stretch we&#8217;ve been on for a couple of weeks is likely to last at least two weeks more.<\/p>\n<p>NOAA&#8217;s Climate Prediction Center issued a forecast Febuary 28th suggesting that there was an equal chance of a warmer or colder than average March. This forecast is unlikely to verify:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-cpcforecast.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-941\" alt=\"mar19-cpcforecast\" src=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-cpcforecast.gif\" width=\"540\" height=\"502\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The last several days of March will likely be colder than average based on the latest guidance. This morning&#8217;s GFS model run suggests temperatures will be well below average (blue and green colors) Thursday morning over much of the nation:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-2mta12zthurgfs.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-942\" alt=\"mar19-2mta12zthurgfs\" src=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-2mta12zthurgfs.png\" width=\"594\" height=\"445\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The latest ECMWF ensemble model also suggests below average temperatures (blue and purple colors) for most of the nation early Thursday morning, including in the Tri-State:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-2mta12zthurec.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-943\" alt=\"mar19-2mta12zthurec\" src=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-2mta12zthurec.png\" width=\"601\" height=\"462\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>If we fast-forward to next Wednesday morning, it&#8217;s more of the same. This morning&#8217;s GFS model suggest temperatures will be colder than average (blue, green, and purple colors) for the eastern two-thirds of the nation:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-2mta12zwedgfs.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-944\" alt=\"mar19-2mta12zwedgfs\" src=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-2mta12zwedgfs.png\" width=\"594\" height=\"445\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The latest ECWMF ensemble model agrees with the GFS model regarding below average temperatures (blue and purple colors) next Wednesday morning:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-2mta12zwedec.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-945\" alt=\"mar19-2mta12zwedec\" src=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-2mta12zwedec.png\" width=\"601\" height=\"462\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Based on this model data, it seems unlikely that a significant warm-up anytime in late March. This morning&#8217;s GFS, however, suggests a ridge of warmth may be building into the heart of the nation during the last week of March:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-500anom12zmar30.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-947\" alt=\"mar19-500anom12zmar30\" src=\"http:\/\/scottdimmich.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/mar19-500anom12zmar30.gif\" width=\"505\" height=\"391\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is a promising sign for those of you looking for a warm up. The strength and positioning of this ridge, however, is <strong>very<\/strong> uncertain; in turn, there is no guarantee that a warm-up is coming in early April.<\/p>\n<p>In summary, it is too early to speculate on when a warm-up is coming. Confidence is fairly high, however, that the rest of March and at least a few days in early April will be colder than average.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Meteorological spring began on March 1st, but astronomical spring begins Wednesday morning at 7:02am eastern time. Despite what the calendar shows, it won&#8217;t feel like spring tomorrow or any day in the near future. The colder-than average stretch we&#8217;ve been on for a couple of weeks is likely to last at least two weeks more. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/940\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottdimmich.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}