There is no doubt that a cold front will sweep through the Tri-State late Monday night and early Tuesday. This front will bring rain, and it will – eventually – help to bring cold air from Canada into the Ohio Valley. In the wake of this cold front, an upper-level area of low pressure will get cut-off from the upper-level flow; in turn, this upper-level low will sit and spin over us until the jet stream can dislodge it to our northeast. While there is high confidence this upper-level low will stick around into the second half of the work week, there is great uncertainty about when it will leave.<\/p>\n

Both this morning’s GFS and ECMWF agree on a subtle warm-up from Sunday into Monday. I’m forecasting a high temperature of 48\u00b0 Monday afternoon and a low temperature of 36\u00b0 Monday night. The latest model data suggests the temperature may rise late Monday night as low-level moisture gets pulled into the region on a strengthening east-southeasterly wind.<\/p>\n

The GFS model has a surge in warmth midnight Tuesday in the Tri-State ahead of the cold front:<\/p>\n

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This morning’s ECMWF model is nearly identical to the ECMWF at midnight Tuesday; it has a surge in warmth ahead of the front and the upper-level low centered over the Mid-South:<\/p>\n

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The forecast gets a bit messier nearing mid-week. This morning’s GFS model has the ill-defined upper-level low in the Ohio Valley by 8am Wednesday morning:<\/p>\n

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The latest ECMWF model run has the upper-level area of low pressure over Cleveland by 8am Wednesday…and brings slightly colder air to Cincinnati by then compared to the GFS model:<\/p>\n

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The GFS and ECMWF aren’t really that different by mid-week, but the differences between the GFS and ECMWF become greater nearing next weekend. The GFS has the main upper-level low over New England and a secondary low trying to form over the interior Midwest:<\/p>\n

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Also, notice the colder air (shades of blue) extending out of southern Canada. If you assume the GFS model verifies, this re-enforcing shot of cold air will mean clouds, flurries, and snow showers will stick around through next Saturday night and Sunday. This morning’s ECMWF model has a different solution; it says the main upper-level low is over Boston, has no secondary low forming west of the Great Lakes, and has no big surge of arctic cold air diving south out of Canada:<\/p>\n

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If you believe the ECMWF model, snow showers and flurries will stick around through Friday but will be gone by Saturday and Sunday.<\/p>\n

Which model do I believe? I’m leaning towards the GFS for now, but I still give a nod to the ECMWF; I have flurries and snow showers in the Tri-State Thursday, Friday, and Saturday and only flurries early Sunday.<\/p>\n

This forecast will likely need to be revised as next weekend nears. Regardless of which model you believe, winter is coming back later this week!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is no doubt that a cold front will sweep through the Tri-State late Monday night and early Tuesday. This front will bring rain, and it will – eventually – help to bring cold air from Canada into the Ohio … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n