The potential for heavy rain this weekend has been forecast for days, and – unfortunately – the time to deal with it has come. It will not rain all weekend, but when it rains, it will likely pour.

Rain will not fall in the Tri-State until at least 11am. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely overspread the Tri-State this afternoon. Microcast has moderate to heavy rain around Cincinnati at 4pm:

Most higher resolution model data suggests there will be at least a couple of hours tonight with little or no rain in our area, but the threat for heavy rain will rise again late tonight and early tomorrow. Microcast has heavy rain in the Tri-State by 7am Sunday morning:

Rain will be heavy at times Sunday morning and afternoon, but thunderstorms are not forecast thanks to falling temperatures, falling dewpoints, and little to no instability. Microcast still has heavy rain in the Ohio Valley late Sunday afternoon:

Models disagree on where exactly the heaviest axis of heavy rain will be through Monday morning. PrecisionCast has the 2-3″ swath of rain (in yellow) in the far northwestern part of the Tri-State and central Indiana:

Microcast has the axis of heavy rain through Monday morning farther to the southeast and closer to downtown Cincinnati:

Other computer models give Cincinnati about 0.7″ to 1.3″ of inch through Monday morning:

If you live in Cincinnati, the odds of getting 1″+ of rain through Monday morning are good. The odds of getting 2-3″ of rain are much higher northwest of Cincinnati.

The ground is soaked thanks to recent rain and almost 8″ of snow (and more northwest of Cincinnati) in the last month and a half. Flooding concerns will be focused northwest of Cincinnati this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see the Flood Watch (now in effect for Fayette and Union County from 7pm tonight through 1pm Sunday) expanded 1-2 counties farther southeast.