Thoughts On Snow Accumulation Tonight And Wednesday

We may be nearing mid-March, but we aren’t done with the threat of accumulating snow in the Tri-State. While the disturbance coming through late tonight and early tomorrow isn’t particularly strong, it will be strong enough to create snow showers and flurries around and after midnight.

Recent model runs have hinted at the possibility for localized bursts of snow for a few days now. Once of our in-house models, Microcast, has been very consistent with the timing and strength of this incoming disturbance. By midnight tonight, Microcast paints snow showers and flurries in and around the Tri-State (in blue):


Microcast is also painting some shades of purple and pink, suggesting rain will mix with flurries. While this is possible, it is not likely given the forecast temperature profile of the atmosphere.

By 7am Wednesday morning, Microcast has several clusters of snow showers and flurries in the area:


The ground and air near the ground will be cold enough to support a chance for accumulating snow at this time. With the morning commute in progress, slick or partially snow-covered roads, sidewalks, and driveways are a concern. Many will just see flurries and little to no accumulation while others that see snow showers may see 1/2″ to 1″ of snow by early Wednesday afternoon.

The risk for snow showers and flurries will drop dramatically by Wednesday afternoon. The latest run of Microcast has only widely scattered snow showers and flurries in our area by 5pm Wednesday:


This morning’s Microcast run gives nearly all of the Tri-State 1/10″ of snow accumulation or less through Wednesday afternoon:


While I agree with this model output overall, isolated 1/2″ to 1″ totals can’t be ruled out overnight and tomorrow morning in the heavier bursts of snow. The best chance for these isolated higher totals will be on elevated, grassy surfaces; accumulation on roads, however, is also possible in the next 24 hours.

Please use caution on area roads during Wednesday morning’s commute!

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