Let’s Talk About Tonight’s and Wednesday’s Severe Weather Threat

Temperatures have been slow to rise today thanks to soaking rain. As of 11am, temperatures are in the upper 40s and lower 50s:

feb28-blog-11amtemps

Dewpoints are in the upper 40s and rising. These numbers will rise through the 50s and to near 60° this afternoon and evening:

feb28-blog-11amdewpoint

As of 11am, clusters of rain and storms have been marching east through the Tri-State this morning:

feb28-blog-11amradar

Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and intensity this afternoon as temperatures rise through the 50s and 60s:

feb28-blog-afternoon

Few if any showers will be floating through the Tri-State late this afternoon and this evening, allowing instability to build and increasing the likelihood for strong and severe storms as a cold front nears from the west:

feb28-blog-evening

Wind speeds will increase this evening as low pressure to the west deepens.

Based on the latest guidance and recent trends, there are two windows of opportunities for severe storms through Wednesday. The first comes between 11pm and 3am tonight. This is the main driver behind the Storm Prediction Center’s enhanced to MODERATE risk for severe storms through sunrise:

feb28-blog-spc1

Between 11pm and 3am, the main severe weather threats are damaging straight-line wind and large hail. Tornadoes are a secondary threat at this time. Storms that come through will likely sweep through as clusters, not a distinct line:

feb28-blog-impacts1

A secondary wave of strong and severe storms will come between 6am and 10am. With this wave, the main severe weather threats are tornadoes and damaging straight-line. Large hail is a secondary threat at this time:

feb28-blog-impacts2

This early morning threat is fueling the Storm Prediction Center’s slight to enhanced risk on Wednesday:

feb28-blog-spc2

In addition, there is a Flash Flood Watch for most of the Tri-State through 4pm Wednesday:

feb28-blog-watch

1-2″ of rain will fall tonight and early Wednesday.

Be alert. Have a way to get warnings!

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s