Forecast & Severe Weather Update

As of 3:15pm, the Storm Prediction Center is considering the issuance of a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm WATCH for parts of the Ohio Valley including the western Tri-State:

mcd0577

Temperatures are rising through the 60s and 70s as of 3pm, increasing the amount of instability and likelihood for strong and severe storms:

temps

Dewpoints have also been rising this afternoon, and this is an impressive rise since this morning when dewpoints were in the the 40s:

dewpoints

A 3pm radar snapshot shows showers and thunderstorms developing to the west of Cincinnati and Tri-State:

radar

Current thinking is that showers and storms will rapidly develop and increase in coverage late this afternoon and early this evening and continue in waves through the second half of the evening and overnight:

evening

The coverage of showers and storms will gradually drop late in the overnight, but flash flooding is the main concern from late evening through sunrise:

overnight

Showers and thunderstorms will be favored early Saturday, then partial clearing and rapid warmup comes during the afternoon:

saturday

I have increased the threat for tornadoes, flash flooding, and large hail slightly from my last update this morning:

impacts

The tornado threat is focused along and south of the Ohio River through early evening. The other threats are distributed around the entire Tri-State.

The Storm Prediction Center still has the entire Tri-State in a slight to enhanced risk for severe storms through sunrise Saturday:

impacts

The threat for severe storms Saturday and Saturday night will be focused northwest of Cincinnati:

spc2

This is forecast the threat of strong storms very early Saturday and also late Saturday night/early Sunday.

If you’re tired of this warm and stormy pattern, longer-range guidance has us much cooler next week:

temptrend

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