It’s Time To Revisit Weather Safety And Personal Responsibility

Posted on September 7, 2015 by admin

Weather has the power to be inconvenient and – unfortunately – can be a threat to life and property. The danger that weather presents depends on the situation; lightning may not be a significant threat to you in your home, but it is a very significant threat to you if you’re outside.

College football is starting up. Baseball games have been going strong all summer. Play has been delayed at GABP almost 22 hours this year alone this and over 27 hours as a team (home and away games combined). Rain, wind, hail, and lightning are all legitimate reasons to stop a game, but lightning seems to be the hardest reason for fans to accept. Here are two examples of people on Twitter not happy with a lightning delay:

Not only did they spell “lightning” wrong, but they don’t seem to understand the importance of lightning. Lightning can injure and kill, and exactly where and when lightning will develop is not easy to predict. The reasons why officials and stadium staff suspend games are not always easy to accept, but they are important reason.

This discussion about lightning during sporting events is just a small part of a larger discussion on weather safety. Weather safety is not just communicating risk; it is also about more than weather education and awareness.

We need to revisit the basics. When I say “we,” I mean everyone; it’s not just a thing for meteorologists. We need to do more than just revisit policies and procedures; we need to start simple. Here are some steps we all need to take:

1) KNOW SPECIFICALLY WHERE YOU ARE AT ALL TIMES DURING THREATENING OR INCONVENIENT WEATHER
Some of you might laugh at this, but this is serious stuff. Too many people in this country don’t know where exactly where they live, exactly where they work, and exactly where they travel to throughout the day. It is very important that you know the county, the approximate distance and direction from nearby towns, and what time it is when there is a threat for inconvenient or storms. Do you know what part of the county for which you live? When you’re at the shopping mall, do you know what city you are near? When you’re watching TV at home and a meteorologist says a city where a storm is, do you know where you are relative to that city? You should. Geography and meteorology are interdisciplinary sciences. Knowing a storm is nothing if you don’t know where it is; on the other hand, if you know where you are but don’t know where storms are, you may be in trouble or unaware that significant weather is coming your way. Know local landmarks, and know where you are relative to those landmarks. Know what part of the city, county, and state you are in at all times, especially if there is a threat for thunderstorms or other threatening weather. Know where you are on a radar map.

2) WARNINGS RELATED TO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ISSUED FOR POLYGONS AND PARTS OF COUNTIES, NOT ENTIRE COUNTIES ANYMORE
In 2007, the National Weather Service started issuing Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado, and Flash Flood Warnings as polygons (or shapes) to clearly identify where severe weather impacts are focused. These warnings are not issued for entire counties anymore; this was done in the past, but it is not done in the present nor will it be done in the future. It is possible that part of your county is in a Tornado Warning while other parts are not. Here is an example of a Tornado Warning from March 2, 2012 in northern Kentucky:

The Tornado Warning is outlined in red. The cities of Crittenden, Butler, Moscow, and Neville are in the Tornado Warning. Walton, Independence, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Williamstown, and Alexandria are just outside of the warning. Here is the same Tornado Warning graphic with radar data included:

The radar shows intense radar echoes in the northern half of the Tornado Warning and also just north of the Tornado Warning.

The city of Crittenden and Dry Ridge (pictured) are both in Grant County, Kentucky. Suppose you live in Dry Ridge, and you hear a Tornado Warning is issued for part of Grant County. Should you take cover? Dry Ridge is not in the red box, and it is not in this Tornado Warning; therefore, you do not need to take cover at this time. However, there are strong storms in your areas, so you should be remain alert for warnings. This leads in easily into my next point.

3) NO WARNING DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT STORMS WON’T BE INCONVENIENT OR THREATENING
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in this country are issued when a storm is producing or is capable of producing wind in excess of 60mph, hail 1″ in diameter or larger, or a tornado. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are not issued for lightning or heavy rain. Do not expect a warning to be issued if inconvenient weather is moving close to where you are. Heavy rain and lightning can still cause injury (or even death) if you put yourself in harm’s way. For your safety, you should always go inside when you see lightning. Heavy rain can lead to localized flooding; if you drive fast through heavy rain or standing water on roads, you can hurt yourself or get yourself in a bad situation, even if a warning was not warranted.

4) WARNINGS, WATCHES, AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT ISSUED FOR LIGHTNING
As I said above, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has specific requirements for wind, hail, or a tornado. There are no lightning requirements for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning to be issued. If you’re outside in a non-severe thunderstorm, you can still be struck by lightning. It only takes one strike to injure or kill you. The odds of getting injured or killed go up rapidly if there is intense lightning in a storm or cluster of storms. Being safe means always going inside when there is lightning nearby.

5) YOU SHOULD HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION
Relying on one source to get severe weather alerts is a terrible idea. Watching television is a great source while you are awake, but your television will not alert you when you are sleeping. Having a NOAA weather radio in your home is important, as it can alert you with a loud noise day or night should a warning or watch be issued for your county and assuming you have your radio programmed correctly. Having a smart phone app to alert you to severe weather is great, but you should have more than one way to be notified of severe weather information. Cell phones can stop working, and batteries can die.

I would recommend having at least three ways to get severe weather bulletins. A correctly-programmed NOAA weather radio, a text alert service for your smart phone, television, and an e-mail alert service are all good sources to get this information. However…

6) A SEVERE WEATHER ALERT NOTIFICATION IS DESIGNED TO ENCOURAGE YOU TO SEEK ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION
A text or e-mail alert service will typically tell you that your county or location has been placed in a severe weather warning. Due to character and text limitations, it is best to go to the television or your computer to verify where warnings, watches, and advisories have specifically been issued. Your text alert service may mention your county, but as discussed above, the National Weather Service issues severe weather warnings as polygons, not as a list of counties; this means that your location may not be in a warning, but another part of your county may be. It is important that you know and seek out this information; your life and property may depend on it.

You may have seen an alert like the one above on your smartphone. These are called Wireless Emergency Alerts, a service created by FEMA, the FCC, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Weather Service. While these alerts are great, they are incomplete due to text and technology limitations. “This area” is not specific. If you received this alert, you are encouraged to get additional severe weather information from another source and – as suggested – seek shelter immediately.

7) OUTDOOR WARNING SIRENS ARE MEANT FOR THOSE OUTDOORS
You should not wait until you hear an outdoor weather warning siren to seek shelter from a dangerous storm. These sirens are designed to notify those who are outdoors that threatening storms are approaching. Depending on location, these are usually issued for Tornado Warnings but may also be issued for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. You should know when these sirens are sounded for your county. You should not consider outdoor warning sirens as the only way to get severe weather notifications, including if you are outside. As mentioned above, an outdoor weather warning siren should encourage you to seek shelter and additional information about where storms are, what threats they pose, and additional warning information.

8) TAKING ADEQUATE SHELTER IS ULTIMATELY YOUR RESPONSIBILITY
Severe weather alerts are great, but they mean nothing if you don’t take action. For example, this sign was displayed during the University of Cincinnati game this past Saturday night:

This was the student section on the opposite side of the stadium shortly after the photo above was taken:

This is not the right response. With all due respect to U.C. Bearcat fans, there should be no students in the stands with that message on the screen. While a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning was not in effect (and didn’t need to be), there was frequent lightning in the area. That was the reason for the message on the scoreboard. I feel a personal responsibility for the safety of these students given that I was one of the meteorologists that worked with the University of Cincinnati to evacuate the field and the stands.

If a meteorologist on TV says to take cover, do it. If the National Weather Services suggests going to the basement in their warning, do it. If you see lightning during your outdoor activity, take cover, and don’t wait for someone else to give you a warning. Whether there’s a warning or not, you should take your safety seriously. If you feel your life is in danger, take shelter and get out of harm’s way immediately. There’s no going back once you are injured or killed by a storm.

Was Summer 2015 In Cincinnati More Humid Than Average?

Posted on September 2, 2015 by admin

Answering the question “How humid was it this summer?” requires an understanding of the dewpoint. The dewpoint is a temperature that indicates an absolute measure of how much moisture there is in the air. Knowing the dewpoint is helpful for gauging how humid Cincinnati was on a particular day or for a particular period of time.

There are extensive weather records for temperatures and precipitation in Cincinnati back to November 1, 1870. Reliable, hourly dewpoint records for Cincinnati, however, only go back to 1938. This period of record, however, is more than sufficient to create 30-year averages (1980-2010); these averages compared to the average dewpoint for each month this summer will give us an indication of how humid this summer was and when.

Here’s a comparison of average dewpoints by month in Cincinnati compared to the monthly average:

This graph shows June 2015’s average dewpoint was higher than the 30-year average, July 2015’s average dewpoint was higher than the 30-year average, and August 2015’s average dewpoint was lower than the 30-year average. June 2015 and July 2015 were both more humid than average, but August 2015 was not.

It is not uncommon to have dewpoints ranging from the 40s to 70s during June, July, or August. The dewpoint peaked in the 70s in June, July, and August; this peak, however, was well short of the all-time records (back to 1938) for each month near or above 80°:

We expect the maximum dewpoint of each month to be below the record, and that was the case for each month this summer. The maximum dewpoint we saw June was on the average, just above average in July, and just below average August:

The minimum dewpoint we saw in June well above average, above average in July, and below average in August:

All of the graphics above suggest that June and July dewpoints were – more often than not – above average, but August dewpoints were generally below average.

A Lack Of Heat In Summer, August 2015

Posted on September 1, 2015 by admin

Meteorological summer 2015 has come to an end, and it was 34th coolest, 112th warmest, and 17th wettest on record in Cincinnati. This summer finished 3.78″ below average for rainfall and about 0.74° below average for temperature. Based on the departure from average, this summer was actually cooler than summer 2013 and summer 2014 combined. Based on average temperature, this summer was the coolest in Cincinnati since 2009:

The average summer temperature for 2015 would be higher had it not even for a cooler than average July and August. July and August finished 0.49° and 2.59° below average, respectively. This may not seem like a lot, but remember the the average temperature is the average of the daily high and daily low averaged over the entire summer.

On average, there are 7 days each in both July and August with a high temperature of or above 90° in Cincinnati. So far this year, there have only been 9 90°+ days in the Queen City (5 in June and 4 in July):

Cincinnati averages 21 days each year with a high temperature of or above 90°. The likelihood of hitting 90° drops very quickly late in September and is extremely low in October. Cincinnati will likely hit 90° at least once in the week ahead before cooler air returns.

It is unusual to not hit 90° at least once during August in Cincinnati. Even during a much cooler summer (2009), Cincinnati still managed to hit 90° once:

Since official records for Cincinnati began on November 1, 1870, there have only been 8 Augusts where the temperature failed to reach 90° at any point during the month:

I hope you enjoyed the break in heat during August. High temperatures will consistently be in the upper 80s to around 90° through early next week. Cooler air will return to the Tri-State by mid-September.

Understanding The Difference Between Dewpoint And Relative Humidity

Posted on August 19, 2015 by admin

The dewpoint is not the relative humidity. The relative humidity is not the dewpoint. Unless you are a meteorologist, you could go your entire life without knowing the relative humidity again. Meteorologists use relative humidity for forecasting clouds and for specific fire weather purposes…and that’s about it. If you only follow one of these two variables, choose dewpoint.

The dewpoint is an absolute measure of how much moisture there is in the air. The higher the dewpoint is, the more humid it is. When the air temperature cools to the dewpoint, the air comes saturated. Any dewpoint above 60° suggests it is humid outside; a dewpoint of 70° or higher means humidity is oppressive.

The relative humidity is different than the dewpoint. The relative humidity describes the relationship between the temperature and the dewpoint. More specificially, the relative humidity is the amount of atmospheric moisture present relative to the amount that would be present if the air were saturated. If the temperature is close to the dewpoint, the relative humidity will be high; if the temperature is far away from the dewpoint, the relative humidity will be low.

The relative humidity does not describe how humid the air is; the dewpoint does. The relative humidity can be 100% in the winter when the air is far from humid. Likewise, the relative humidity can be below 50% when it is very humid outside.

Let’s look at the relationship between the temperature and dewpoint and how it affects relative humidity. If the temperature and dewpoint are equal to each other, the relative humidity is 100%. For example, if the temperature is 65° and the dewpoint is 65°, the relative humidity is 100%:

If the temperature is 30° and the dewpoint is 30°, the relative humidity is still 100%:

Regardless of what the temperature and the dewpoint are, if the two are equal, the relative humidity is 100%. The relative humidity can be 100% on a humid summer morning or on a very cold winter day.

Let’s go back to the first scenario. Suppose the temperature rose from 65° to 80° on a summer day, but the dewpoint remained at 65°. Because the difference between the temperature and dewpoint increased, we expect the relative humidity to decrease. In fact, it dropped to 60%:

Did the air become less humid? The answer is no. The dewpoint did not change, but the relative humidity dropped significantly; because the dewpoint is over 65°, however, it is humid. In fact, you didn’t even need to know the relative humidity to know whether the air became less humid or not; you just needed to know if the dewpoint rose or fell.

Suppose later that day the temperature kept rising, the dewpoint didn’t change, and the relative humidity fell:

Did the air become more humid or less humid? The answer is neither. The dewpoint did not change, so the air is not more or less humid.

As an aside, the air may feel more humid when the temperatures rose through the day (even when the dewpoint did not). This apparent temperature – called the heat index – rose because the temperature increased. The heat index is only calculated between the temperature is greater than 80° and the dewpoint is greater than 54°.

Let’s make another change. Suppose the temperature did not rise again, but the dewpoint and the relative humidity both increased:

Did the air become more or less humid? The dewpoint rose, so the air became more humid. The relatively humidity rose only in response to the dewpoint rising; because the difference between the temperature and dewpoint went down, the relative humidity increased.

It’s time for one more change. Suppose the temperature of the air remained the same, but the dewpoint and relative humidity dropped:

The air became far less humid because the dewpoint dropped 20°! The relative humidity dropped only because the difference between the temperature and the dewpoint increased.

In summary, the dewpoint is an absolute measure of how much moisture there is in the air. The relative humidity does not tell you how humid the air is; the dewpoint does. The relative humidity describes the relationship between the temperature and dewpoint. The relative humidity can drop and fall rapidly through the day even if the dewpoint remains the same. Despite “humidity” in its name, relative humidity is not a good judge of humidity as you feel it; it is a measure how far apart the temperature and dewpoint are.

Don’t fall into the relative humidity trap! Relative humidity almost always rises and falls more quickly than the dewpoint. Stick with the dewpoint; it is your absolute guide to absolute humidity!

More Storms Than Usual This Month, Summer, And Year?

Posted on August 10, 2015 by admin

Many in the Tri-State feel that this has been an abnormally stormy month, summer, or year. Perhaps it is the intensity of the rain, the frequency of the storms, or the lack of days with abundant sunshine that have people thinking there have been more storms than usual this year.

I keep a database of Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado, and Flash Flood Warnings for the area. The records go back to when the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Wilmington, Ohio first began issuing warnings in 1995. While we are not halfway through the month of August, the Tri-State Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings counts (from January 1st to August 31st) are below the averages and records for the same time period. The Severe Thunderstorm Warning count is above average:

These numbers suggest this has been a stormy year in some ways, but not in all. Many forget how stormy 2011 was. 2011 was also the wettest year on record in Cincinnati (with yearly records dating back to 1871).

Many have said that this August has been abnormally stormy. One way to measure this is by comparing the August Severe Thunderstorm Warning count from one August to others:

On average, there 12 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are issued in the Tri-State each August; so far in 2015, 17 have been issued. By this measure, it has been a stormy August, but more warnings were issued in 2007 and 2010. It is worth noting that August 2015 has not yet ended, so that count is not final.

Has this been an abnormally stormy summer? If you compare the Tri-State Severe Thunderstorm Warning count from June 1st to August 31st, there have only been 3 years since 2007 with more warnings:

On average, 59 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are issued in the Tri-State each summer (June, July, and August combined). While we are ahead of the average, we are unlikely to break the summer record of 103 warnings set in 2008.

For all intents and purposes, 2013 and 2014 were somewhat quiet severe weather years. No tornadoes were confirmed in the Tri-State during 2013, and 5 were confirmed in Tri-State during 2014. For perspective, the yearly average (1950-2014) is roughly 3 tornadoes. Flash Flood and Tornado Warning counts were below the 1995-2014 average in both 2013 and 2014. The Tornado Warning count was below average in 2013. If you remember the last couple of years, 2015 is a stormy year. Calling 2015 “stormy” compared to 2011 or 2012 is a much harder case. There were 16 confirmed tornadoes in the Tri-State during 2012.

I’ve found that when people compare seasons, they often compare it to last year or the previous season. 2011 and 2012 were stormy years and – in many ways – stormier than 2015.

There are also dozens of ways to measure how stormy a period of time is. 2015 has been a stormy year for Brown County, where three flash flood fatalities occurred earlier this year. Those are the first storm-related deaths in Brown County since March 2, 2012. Where you live, what you see, or what you doing see influences your memory of storms.

A Sycamore Story: Putting A Weather Station On The Roof

Posted on August 7, 2015 by admin

Since I returned back home to Cincinnati in late 2011, I’ve been connected with Sycamore Community Schools in a lot of ways: through teachers, through friends, and by getting involved in district activities. Sycamore is a district with award-winning education, and Sycamore is working on some new initiatives to make sure students are better prepared for the workforce.

Before a weather station and camera network was created at Local 12, I spoke at a STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) meeting with Sycamore staff in 2012. I discussed the value of having a weather station at a school. First, the data collected by the weather station can be used in the classroom to teach math, science, technology, and computer programming. The data can also be shared with the National Weather Service and media to show current weather conditions; these data are especially important during active and severe weather.

Sycamore recent initiatives opened up an opportunity to put a weather station at Sycamore High School. With the backing of the district, the weather station arrived at the high school last week, and the installation began on Wednesday:

Mr. Chad Husting, a science teacher at the high school, Ashwin Corattiyil, the Dean of Students at the high school, and I set up the weather station on Wednesday. Mr. Husting was nothing short of MacGyver connecting the pieces together. He even came in Friday to secure the station’s pole and tripod!

The weather station is away from wind blocks and obstructions and also away from where animals and people can influence the measurements with it:

The wind speed and direction are measured at the top of the weather station, and rainfall and temperature measurement are taken in the black and white-colored units, respectively.

It is important that the station is positioned away from walls, buildings, and trees that can block the wind. That makes the roof a great spot!

Note the cinder blocks holding the weather station down. Derrick Richardson (assistant principal), Ms. Haverkos (high school science teacher), two custodians, Ashwin, and I put those there to make sure the station was secure (they did most of the work)!

The weather station has a wireless connection to a console in the building. From the console, the data are uploaded to the Internet and to various sources:

While at the school, students will be able to see the data on the console, but the data will also flow to several places online, including:

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/sycamorehs
http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KOHCINCI139
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=E7726 (coming by mid-August)

This is an exciting time for Sycamore not just because I see a weather station on the roof but because students, staff, and the community benefit from having that data. Science teachers at Sycamore High School, including the ones listed above, seem to be very excited about this new teaching tool, and I’m hopeful that the success of this weather station is so big that it spreads to other schools throughout the district.

Ironically, Sycamore High School is across the street from a neighborhood heavily damaged by an F4 tornado back on April 9, 1999. Those who have lived in Blue Ash, Montgomery, and Symmes Township for years know that a simple weather station is more than just education; it’s safety.

All I Really Need To Know I Learned From My High School Physics Teacher

Posted on August 3, 2015 by admin

Meet Mr. G. Some call him Mr. Gutekunst. Some (not me) call him Mike.

Regardless of what you call him, he was my physics teacher junior year of high school. I have seen him twice since I graduated. One of the best luxuries of working in your hometown – especially as a public figure – is that you can connect with people from your past fairly easily. The picture above shows we have both managed to keep our youthful look after many, many years.

I learned a lot from Mr. G. He basically set a foundation of science that I use daily as a meteorologist. Sure, all sciences – biology, chemistry, and others – are connected to meteorology, but physics is one of the most important.

While a love for science can connect two people, I remember Mr. G most for what he taught me about life. It is cliché, but what he taught on the last day of class was revolutionary and an appropriate foreshadowing for the reality of life.

I had lunch with Mr. G this past Thursday. We spent over two hours discussing our lives. We discussed everything from our families to our journey.

This blog post is not about a lunch reunion that many of us frequently have. I recognize many of us catch up with friends and colleagues, and that this meeting over lunch doesn’t seem unique.

I share this lunch meeting story because Mr. G discussed a message about life from which we could all learn.

When I was a junior in high school, Mr. G shared the “Mr. G Story” on our last day of class. With me being in his first ever class, he was in his early 20s giving his students – just a few years younger – some valuable lessons on life. Being a Purdue University physics and engineering major, a lot of his story was about keeping the pace going, fighting the urge to stop, and finding time to enjoy what makes you happy.

Part of our lunch conversation on Thursday was about the gist of the Mr. G Story, which had become grayer and fuzzier in my mind with time. I asked Mr. G to share the gist with me, and he deferred answering my question until he could look at his notes. He told me his story had changed some over time, but the overall principles were still the same. The gist of the Mr. G Story is to answer key questions about your life, and – yes – you must answer them:

1) What do you enjoy doing most? When are you most satisfied in your life?

2) What are your best attributes, according to you?

3) How did you get to this point in your life? Do you like where you’re going?

4) What do you want your life to stand for? What do you want your name to mean?

5) If money was no object, what would you do with your life?

6) What will constitute you being a success in your life? How will you know when you’ve succeeded?

7) Will your intended career path pay you a salary that lets you live the lifestyle you prefer? (put simply – will you make enough money to be happy?)

These seem like simple questions, but if you revisit them a time or two, you realize they aren’t as simple as they seem. Even if one of these questions seems simple, the next one may not be so simple. Some of these questions make you question what you are doing with the limited number of days you have on Earth.

Some could look at me, a meteorologist working at a great station in my hometown, and say I was successful. There are, however, so many things in my life that are incomplete or could use a change. I know I’ve made my mother proud, and I believe my late father would be proud of what I have done with my life. Both of them either say or would say my life is not about them though; it’s about me being in charge of my own life.

Question 6 hits me the hardest. How do you know when you are a success? What do you do once you’ve achieved success? What’s next?

I hope these questions have meaning to you, and I hope you revisit some of them before you close this webpage, end your day, or end your week. The answers to these questions can take a lifetime. If a man inspired me to contact him and have lunch years after I left his classroom, the questions he poses to all his students can be asked of all of us.

Ask yourself the tough questions. I’ve already printed the questions above and placed them over my desk at home. When a tough decision comes, I’ll be asking myself these questions until I know the answers.

Why Josh Knight Will Be Missed

Posted on July 12, 2015 by admin

You might know him as a a meteorologist. You might know him as a feature reporter covering local events and businesses. You might know him as both. Regardless of how you know him, he will be missed.

Josh is exactly the person you see on-air. That’s not always the case in the TV business, but it definitely is with Josh. You see his bright, bubbly personality on television, and that’s the way he is when the red light on the camera goes off.

I often joked with him off camera that he is every ray of sunshine on a cloudy day. When something “less than optimal” came his way, he found a way to make it positive. That thing that would make most of us say “I really have to do this?” became “This is a great learning experience” to him. He always found a way to make put a bright spin on a bad situation…or at least try to bend it positive.

While his positive bias has served him well, Josh is also a very good meteorologist. When I say very good meteorologist, I mean it. An Ohio Valley forecast is always a challenge. When my shifts followed his, I rarely made changes. He would often say – either through notes or in person – that his confidence in certain weather situations wasn’t high; despite what he says, his forecast is ahead of the curve. He takes the time to look through lots of model data and make reasonable decisions that made the most sense. Where I struggle in pattern recognition and specifics, he excels. When my confidence to break away from computer guidance is weak, his is strong. When I bend away from guidance, he bends more. His confidence makes me more confident. He did this without bragging or boasting; he did it without even knowing it.

Josh is moving to WJLA in Washington D.C., closer to his hometown. As a guy who works in his hometown, there is no place like home, and it’s great to be home. I am happy for him because he will use his talents to the fullest there. WJLA is a station I respect and many in D.C. respect, and they are adding a great meteorologist to their team. His problem solving and critical thinking skills are top notch, and he will be a great asset to WJLA.

I hope you join Josh one last time on Good Morning Cincinnati from 8am to 9am and from 11am to 12pm.

What Happened Near New Vienna, Ohio Friday Afternoon?

Posted on June 27, 2015 by admin

It’s not often I get to go out and survey storm damage. I’m usually in a studio under bright lights. When storms hit today, the newsroom dispatched me into the field. Initially, I saw tree damage along Pausch Road near Leesburg, Ohio:

This photo was taken looking northeast and all of the downed trees are pointing towards the southeast, where radar suggested the winds from the storm were pointing to. In nearly the same spot and facing the opposite direction, damage to barns suggested a northwest wind when it occurred. There was siding in the field from the leftmost barn pictures just southeast of the barn:

With all of the damage fanned out in a uniform direction, this suggested straight-line winds caused this damage.

Shortly after we left the scene to head home, the newsroom directed us to a damaged home north of New Vienna, Ohio. Here’s the approximate location of the house relative to New Vienna:

Imagine what I felt arriving the scene and seeing this:

Whoa. What could cause this? I immediately went into investigation mode. Here’s a wide shot of this house and the yard around it:

Notice anything, even that this resolution? Most of the debris is to the left of the house. With this photo looking southeast, most of the debris is on the east or southeast side of the house, including all of this debris along the road:

Closer to the home, I found this wood board driven into the ground:

Whoa. That’s some force. The home owner (pictured above) is actually an electrical engineer at General Electric. He was thinking like I was; he wondered how there could be all of this debris so far away from the house, especially east of the house. The wind was coming from the northwest at the time; if damaging straight-line wind was the cause of this damage, why was there so much damage to the east of the house (including large, heavy parts of the walls)? In addition to the debris field, that board driven into the ground suggested to me this was a tornado.

After we shot our video at the house, we drove through New Vienna (north on State Route 73); there was a lot of tree damage there:

I did not see any structural damage, and all of the tree damage seemed to lean towards the south, east or southeast. The alignment of buildings and tree along the road reminded me of the Venturi Effect, possibly explaining how winds were accelerating through the town. More on the Venturi Effect is here: http://www.tech-faq.com/venturi-effect.html. In other words, winds – moving northwest to southeast through the town, or basically down S.R. 73 – were accelerating or at least traveling through the town like this:

This damage appears to be caused by straight-line winds. As I drove home, I had a visual of what the radar data might look like. While I had looked at radar briefly in real-time as the storm moved through Highland County, I had not looked at the radar data in detail.

Here is the radar loop from 3:04 to 3:49pm for this Highland County storm:

Here is the storm relative velocity (the Doppler part of Doppler radar or how the winds are moving relative to the radar [minus the motion of the storm to see rotation] in Wilmington, Ohio) loop of this storm from 3:04pm to 3:49pm:

From the radar’s lowest scan angle, red colors are winds moving away from the radar, green colors are winds moving towards the radar, and yellow colors are severe winds moving away from the radar. So the overall wind flow relative to the radar looked like this:

There’s no strong rotation here. Radar suggests mainly outflow winds. But there’s more! Let’s look specifically at the radar snapshot around 3:15pm:

There’s no hook echo or strong inflow notch. Let’s look at the base velocity data for the same area:

Winds were moving away from the radar near New Vienna at the time damage occurred. Normally, strong winds towards and strong winds away from the radar are close together near a tornado. So there’s no tornado right? Not so fast. The magnitude of the wind speeds near New Vienna matter:

See how wind speeds over New Vienna are stronger than where the blue arrow is? Imagine a pinwheel facing the sky just north of New Vienna. Which way would it rotate? Counter-clockwise…like most tornadoes do. If you’re having a tough time visualizing this, see what normalized rotation looked like:

The green area shows significant counter-clockwise rotation based on raar; in other words, this is where radar is detecting rotation and the possibility of a tornado.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington is responsible for determining if damage was from straight-line wind or a tornado. I don’t know if they will survey this Saturday. Based on the damage I saw, the Leesburg damage looks to be from straight-line wind, but the New Vienna damage is more complicated. After seeing it with my own two eyes, the damage north of New Vienna looks tornadic, but the damage in town is a close call.

We will see what the verdict is from the NWS!

Remembering The Harrison Area F4 Tornado 25 Years Ago

Posted on June 2, 2015 by admin

When you think of Tri-State tornadoes, you may think of March 2, 2012 or April 9, 1999. If you’ve lived in the Cincinnati area for a while, you may also remember April 3, 1974. The tornadoes of June 2-3, 1990 are often forgotten because there were no fatalities from tornadoes that night. There were, however, roughly 40 injuries in southeastern Indiana and southwestern Ohio during the event; all of these injuries came from an F2 tornado extending from Ripley to Dearborn County and from an F4 tornado extending from Dearborn to Warren County:

The highest rated tornado in the Tri-State that night was an F4 that went through Harrison, Ohio and also caused damage up to Mason. This tornado began two miles west of Bright, Indiana and continued into northwestern Hamilton County, where 32 homes and five businesses were destroyed. Two 18-inch, 75-foot long, 5/8″ steel beams designed to withstand winds up to 250mph were twisted to the ground at a restaurant in Harrison. The tornado continued into southern and southeastern Butler County where 19 homes and 4 mobile homes were destroyed. 58 homes, 22 mobile homes, and five apartment buildings were damaged. The tornado ended about 1 mile southwest of Mason, Ohio in Warren County.

A little known fact about the Harrison area tornado is that the path of the tornado is not continuous despite official records listing the damage from Bright to Mason as one tornado. The tornado briefly lifted near New Baltimore, Ohio and settled back to the ground in Colerain Township near Pippin Road. While the tornado lifted, the path’s interruption was brief enough to count as one tornado per NWS directives. Current NWS directives (specifically, NWS Directive 10-1605) state that if a tornado’s path is interrupted for more than 2 miles OR more than 4 minutes, the tornadoes will be rated separately. This NCDC website suggests “a tornado that lifts off the ground for less that [sic] 5 minutes or 2.5 miles is considered a separate segment. If the tornado lifts off the ground for greater than 5 minutes or 2.5 miles, it is considered a separate tornado.” Official NWS records (from the National Climatic Data Center) suggest the tornado lifted near New Baltimore, Ohio at 10:10pm EST and touched down again in Colerain Township, Ohio at 10:14pm EST. While close to being two separate tornadoes, official records list the damage from Dearborn County to Warren County as one tornado. It is unclear to me which definition is correct and/or was the correct definition at the time. Here is a map showing the tornado’s path on the evening of June 2, 1990:

The F2 tornado that affected Ripley and Dearborn County that night produced 3 injures and caused mainly tree damage. The Hopewell Church in western Ripley County near Holton was, however, destroyed.

Radar images of this event are of poor quality, but it appears that a cyclic supercell was responsible for the damage extending from Holton to Mason. Other, weaker tornadoes were confirmed in Boone, Clermont, and Clinton County that night.

No one died in the Harrison area tornado of June 2, 1990. Including this one, there have only been three violent (F4, F5, EF4, or EF5) tornadoes in the Tri-State since 1950 that have not produced fatalities (the others being on April 3, 1974 and April 25, 1964).

Meteorologist Scott Dimmich

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