Our recent warming trend will continue through Saturday. In addition to tracking high temperatures in the 50s and 60s, the week ahead will feature several chances for rain; some of the rain – especially this weekend – may be heavy.

The latest model guidance suggests high temperatures will be near 50° tomorrow and in the low to mid 60s Friday and Saturday. While high temperatures will be 20-25° above average Friday and Saturday, record high temperatures will not be broken or tied.

Here’s how record, forecast, and average highs compare Thursday through Monday:

The record high for both Friday and Saturday were set in 1890. 1890 ended up being the 16th warmest year on in Cincinnati.

While it will be warm, the next few days will also be rather wet. Models suggest about 1/2″ of rain will fall from tomorrow morning through Friday afternoon:

Heavy, widespread rain is coming this weekend and early next week. The heaviest rain will likely be in our area Saturday night through Monday morning. The latest model data suggests 1-3″ of rain will fall from Saturday to Tuesday:

While it hasn’t been discussed in a while, the latest NOAA Drought Monitor (issued January 1) shows areas along and north of I-71 are either abnormally dry or in a moderate drought:

While the rain coming tomorrow, this weekend, and next week may get in the way of your outdoor plans, it will be beneficial.

A well-advertised warming trend is in progress, but you can’t expect above average temperature runs to last long in January.

Today was our third straight day with an above average high temperature in Cincinnati. We’ll likely be on the warm side of average through the weekend.

High temperatures will approach 60° Friday afternoon, and we’ll briefly jump into the lower 60s Saturday afternoon. The record high temperature in Cincinnati Friday is 67°; the record high Saturday is 71°. Both records were set in 1890. These record high temperatures are unlikely to be tied or broken later this week.

While the records will be safe, high temperatures in the Ohio Valley will likely be 20° to 25° above average Friday:

High temperatures in the Ohio Valley will likely be 20° to 25° above average again Saturday:

A piece of arctic air is likely to return next week, but there is still some uncertainty on the positioning and strength of this upcoming cold punch. The latest 8-14 temperature outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows below average temperatures are likely next week in and Rockies and Plains:

We will likely see temperatures near average (in the mid to upper 30s) most of next week.

There are signs from the from the long range model guidance that cold will return later this month and into February. Winter is not over yet!

On Sunday, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center released updated 2012 tornado statistics. While these are not official statistics just yet, the report from SPC provides insight about the number and strength of tornadoes last year.

SPC reports there were 936 confirmed tornadoes in 2012. This fell well short of the record of 1,817 confirmed tornado in 2004 but was still enough to get the 25th spot on the list of years with the most tornadoes.

Statistics also reveal that the number of people killed by tornadoes in 2012 nationally was below average. 68 people were killed by tornadoes in 2012; on average, 91 people are killed by tornadoes each year.

While these statistics may lead to you believe 2012 was a quieter-than-average year for tornadoes in the United States overall, it was a record-setting year locally.

When you compare the national statistics against the ones for just the Tri-State, the numbers are rather alarming:

While the 16 confirmed tornadoes in the Tri-State is less than 2% of 936 confirmed tornadoes nationally last year, 16 confirmed tornadoes in the Tri-State is still a yearly record.

Of only 4 confirmed violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes in the United last year, 1 occurred here in the Tri-State, striking Piner and Crittenden.

The most alarming statistic coming from the SPC’s report is that 10 of the 68 people that died from tornadoes in 2012 unfortunately died here in the Tri-State. In other words, 15% of all tornado-related deaths in country last year occurred too close to home. All of those local deaths can be blamed on the March 2nd tornadoes.

The map above shows all of the tornadoes in the Tri-State on March 2, 2012. March 2 was one of the biggest tornado outbreaks the Tri-State has ever seen, but not all tornadoes were not long-track and violent. One of the the devils in the details is the fact that 50% of all tornado-related deaths in the Tri-State on March 2nd occurred in mobile homes.

To read the “United States Tornadoes Of 2012” fact sheet from SPC, click here.

After several blasts of snow and ice over the last few weeks, a quieter pattern is forecast through mid-week. By late week, southerly flow will be strong, and temperatures will soar into the upper 50s (and perhaps into the lower 60s for some). Beyond this, there are indications that arctic air will plunge into the northern half of the U.S., but this is not certain.

Recent model runs are in good agreement for a late week warm up. While this morning’s GFS model run shows a closed, upper-level low nearby, it also shows abnormally warm temperatures (indicated in red and purple) over the eastern two-thirds of the nation:

The GFS dissolves this upper-level low by Saturday morning, and so does the latest run of the ECMWF. This morning’s ECMWF run also has abnormally warm air along the spine of the Appalachians early Saturday:

While it will be warm, it will be wet at times and rather cloudy. For now, the best chance for rain in the week ahead is Thursday and early Friday. Models disagree on the exact timing and strength of the system moving through this weekend.

Beyond this weekend, the forecast gets very tricky. The latest ECMWF model has cold air invading from the north (indicated in blue, green, and yellow), but the true arctic air (indicated in dark blue and purple in the top of the graphic) is still in Canada by early Monday morning:

The GFS solution is a lot colder next week than what the ECMWF suggests. The GFS has been a more reliable and consistent model as of late, but the GFS has a bias for over-developing areas of low pressure and – in turn – overdoing cold plunges in the wake of them. In addition to the strength, the GFS has also been inconsistent with the timing of this potential arctic outbreak next week. Despite the GFS continuing to show a large blast of arctic air sometime next week, I remain skeptical.

When it comes to arctic outbreaks, the last holdout in the model world is usually the Canadian – specifically the Canadian Ensemble mean. An ensemble is essentially a bunch of models with the initial conditions changed slightly; an average of all of the ensemble members usually gives an accurate indication of what will happen in a broad sense weather-wise. The last Canadian Ensemble mean plot shows arctic air (indicated in blue and light blue) over Canada and some of that arctic air spilling into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley:

If you take this model output at face value, next week looks rather cold around Cincinnati, but not extremely cold. Because the plot above is an “average,” it’s difficult to see localized extremes in temperature; nonetheless, the idea is clear: there is the potential for large cold blast next week, but the specific timing and positioning of this cold air is uncertain. I don’t see support for a large arctic outbreak like many have advertised. My experience tells me large arctic outbreaks are not likely until they are supported by the Canadian Ensemble.

The latest ECMWF Weekly model (that came out Thursday night) shows above average warmth (indicated in bright green) for the Tri-State from Tuesday to next Monday:

The latest ECMWF Weekly model also keeps us in above average warmth from January 15-23:

The ECMWF Weekly wants to keep the core of arctic air over the Rockies and southern Canada, working against recent GFS model solutions of a large arctic outbreak next week.

With confidence, I can say next week looks colder than this week. I’m leaning towards a prolonged colder-than-average stretch next week over a major arctic outbreak (with highs consistently in the 20s) like the GFS model suggests.

A rain/snow mix is likely by mid to late afternoon in the Tri-State as a cold front approaches from the west. Through late morning, the only nearby reports of rain or snow reaching the ground have been in southwestern Indiana and western Kentucky. Dry air near the ground is winning for now, but there will likely be some light rain and snow in the area by 4pm, as the latest run of Microcast shows (snow is in blue, rain is in green):

Temperatures will drop only a couple of degrees tonight. In Cincinnati, we should drop to 29° by early Tuesday morning…just cold enough for snow. Notice Microcast forecasting snow showers around 7am tomorrow:

Snow will be diminishing tomorrow afternoon and may briefly mix with rain as temperatures crawl back into the low and mid 30s. Microcast paints a light rain/snow mix in the Ohio Valley at 4pm tomorrow:

Microcast gives us about 1″ of storm total snowfall accumulation through tomorrow night, and last night’s hi-resolution ECMWF gives us about the same:

Other models – including the last two runs of the NAM and GFS – give us 1″ or less. Unless a big change happens in the models, you can plan on around 1″ or less for the entire event; isolated amounts more than 1″ are possible tomorrow, but no community is favored to see 1″+ over another.

If the cold has been too much for you recently, think back to this summer when we had several days over 95° and a few over 100°. When you balance this year’s cold and warmth, the warmth clearly won out. 2012 will likely finish as the 4th warmest year on record in Cincinnati (records date back to 1871) and the warmest year on record at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Airport (official records for Cincinnati began there in 1947). Here are the warmest years in Cincinnati:

It is worth noting that Cincinnati records from 1870 to 1915 – including in 1881, 1882, and 1898 – were taken downtown at the first local National Weather Service forecast office. These records are likely skewed warm due to Cincinnati’s urban heat island. While it is difficult to confirm, 2012 would likely be the warmest year on record if Cincinnati’s records were taken in the same location since 1870 (unfortunately, this is not the case).

Happy New Year!

From October 2011 to April 2012, 5.6″ of snow fell in Cincinnati. Contrast that with the 7.4″ of snow that has fallen in Cincinnati over the last 10 days. In Cincinnati, more snow has fallen in the last 10 days than in the 635 days before them (6.5″ fell between 3/27/2011 and 12/20/2012).

With Friday and Saturday’s event, there were large differences in storm total snow accumulations from one community to the other. Here is a map of storm reports from the National Weather Forecast Office in Wilmington (not all of the amounts shown are storm totals):

Notice the variation on snowfall amounts in and around the I-275 loop; I measured 1.9″ of new snow at the WKRC-TV studios in Mt. Auburn through 9:45am Saturday, but most within 10 miles saw 2-4″:

I assure you my total (through 9:45am) is correct; I am a trained weather spotter…and a meteorologist!

Unlike Wednesday’s event where there were fairly uniform bands of 1-2″, 2-4″, etc., snowfall amounts with Friday and Saturday’s event resembled a shotgun spray where some got blasted and others didn’t see as much. Snow banding was the main driver behind the variation in totals. Most of the fresh snowpack in the Ohio Valley can be seen on late morning visible satellite imagery:

Today will be sunny to mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper 20s.

Another round of rain and snow is coming late Monday, Tuesday, and Tuesday night. The best chance for rain – be it small – will be favored south of Cincinnati tomorrow afternoon and evening. Most will just see snow from late tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday night.

How much snow is coming? Odds of 1″+ of snow from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night look good. Totals beyond that are uncertain. The latest NAM model runs paints 1-2″ of snow for the entire event, the latest GFS paints about 1″ (some community with less), and last night’s ECMWF model run paints 1-2″ of snow for most. This is raw model output, not a forecast. Forecast totals may be released as soon as tonight.

Yesterday afternoon, models suggested 1-2″ of snow would accumulate in the Tri-State tonight through Saturday afternoon. The newest model data is more aggressive with the chance for snow, so forecast snow amounts have gone up.

Recent SREF model runs have shifted heavier snowfall amounts north overnight, and have also increased totals. The risk for 1″+  of snow from 10pm to 10pm tonight is on the left; the 4″+ chance is on the right:

Notice a rather high chance for 1″+ in and around Cincinnati in this time period, but a low chance for 4″+. This is the main reason why I am not including 4″+ totals in my forecast for now. An isolated 3.5″ to 4″ amount is possible in our area, but it is not likely at this point.

The latest high-resolution ECMWF model shows generally 2-3″ of snow in the greater Cincinnati area tonight through tomorrow night:

These totals look realistic with the exception of the far southern Tri-State, where most models have lower snow amounts.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all but Mason County, Kentucky from 7pm tonight through 1pm tomorrow:

My latest snow forecast calls for 2-3″ for most in the Tri-State tonight through tomorrow afternoon; 1-2″ totals will be confined to parts of Owen, Mason, Robertson, Grant, Bracken, Adams, Brown, and Pendleton County:

Forecast totals will likely change later today; look for updates this afternoon and evening!

It will be cloudy tonight, but no rain, sleet, freezing rain, or snow is forecast until late tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. The latest model guidance continues to have accumulating in the Tri-State this weekend, but this will be a much weaker disturbance than the one that come through Wednesday.

Because this disturbance will be much weaker, snowfall totals will likely be much lower. Before we see accumulating snow, there will be a mix of light rain and snow Friday evening. The latest SREF model shows this mix of rain and snow around 10pm Friday; notice the rain winning out tomorrow evening:

By 7am Saturday, however, the SREF model shows mostly snow in the Cincinnati area:

This is likely going to be accumulating snow with temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s early Saturday morning. How much? The SREF has a 30-50% chance in the Tri-State (depending on where you live) for 1″+ of snow between 7pm Friday and 7am Sunday:

While this is NOT a forecast, the 7am run of high-resolution ECMWF model is rather aggressive with the threat of accumulating snow Friday night and Saturday:

Again, this is raw model data and not a forecast. These numbers appear to be a bit high, but isolated amounts up to 1.5-2″ appear possible with this system. These numbers are preliminary; adjustments are likely in the next 24-36 hours. I would rather ramp totals up than ramp them down. There will likely be some variations in snowfall totals from one Tri-State community to another.

We will release a snowfall forecast in the next 24 hours…stay tuned.

A large winter storm is on the way to the Ohio Valley later tonight and tomorrow. Like many storms in the Ohio Valley (especially where rain and ice mix in), snowfall totals are going to be tricky. There is fairly high confidence that the heaviest snowfall totals are going to be focused north and west of Cincinnati. Lower totals (where light freezing rain and rain will be found much of tonight and tomorrow) will be along and south of I-71. There is still great uncertainty in snowfall amounts along I-71. Some counties may see a 3-6″ spread from the highest snowfall total to the lowest total in the county.

A Blizzard WARNING is in effect from 1am tonight through 1am Thursday for Fayette, Union, Franklin, Butler, and Ripley County. Many in this area can expect frequent gusts up to 35-40mph, blowing and drifting snow, and visibilities under 1/4 due to blowing and drifting snow late tonight and Wednesday:

A Blizzard Warning does not mean 2′ of snow; it is issued when a combination of winds and low visibility make it difficult to travel. I strong discourage travel in this warned area late tonight and tomorrow. Sustained blizzard or blizzard-like conditions are not expected at this time in the Cincinnati metro.

A Winter Storm WARNING is in effect from 1am tonight through 1am Thursday for Warren and Clinton County. These areas are likely to see gusty winds, bursts of heavy snow, and wind chills in the mid teens to lower 20s overnight and tomorrow. 4-6″ of snowfall accumulation (with isolated higher amounts) are forecast in the northern half of the warned area:

Lower snow amounts are forecast closer to the Ohio River, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1am tonight through 1am Thursday:

Notice there are areas south of this advisory not under any sort of alert. Only 1″ or less of snow is forecast in these areas, mainly due to the amount of freezing rain and rain mixing with snow. In fact, sections of northern Kentucky may see rain for most of the night and Wednesday before changing over to snow.

The most severe winter weather will be northwest of Cincinnati tonight through tomorrow night. Less snow and lighter winds will be found along and south of I-71, especially from Owenton to West Union.

For now, here is what I expect for snowfall amounts:

Notice the differences in snow totals, especially in counties along I-71. If this forecast verifies, northwestern Hamilton County will see 4-6″ (with isolated higher amounts) and southeastern Hamilton County will see 1-2″. These forecast snowfall amounts may change later tonight and tomorrow, and there may be isolated higher or lower amounts outside of each snow band.

Do you need any outline of when things are going to happen? There’s a lot to take in; I understand! Expect snow northwest of Cincinnati, rain and freezing rain southeast of Cincinnati, and a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain along I-71 and in Cincinnati to change over to mostly snow by late tomorrow afternoon. Even at 4pm tomorrow, there will still be many with little or no snow accumulation (and just rain and/or flurries) well southeast of downtown:

Stay tuned; we will update the forecast as needed!